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The beginning of the great pillage of Europe

/Pogled.info/ European affairs, which until the last moment expected at least some security in the Ukrainian conflict, finally made it. The advance of the Ukrainian armed forces on the Kharkiv front, the mobilization in Russia and finally the annexation of the territories occupied by the Russian army have finally convinced the European business elite that this conflict is serious and long-term. Neither side in the war is interested in a truce or even a cessation of hostilities, as there is neither a clear victory nor a crushing defeat, and the negotiating positions of the opponents diverge at the speed of the expanding universe, leaving no room for compromise. and even topics for discussion. So it’s time to get out of Europe.

As early as September 22, “Bloomberg” released sensational inside information that Europe’s largest carmaker – “Volkswagen” – is developing a full-scale plan to move production out of Germany. The concern did not disprove the information, indicating, however, that these are not major manufacturing plants, but component suppliers with energy-intensive industries. At the same time, delocalization means the transfer of production plants within the European Union, closer to the southern borders of the EU and to the coast, where the plants for obtaining liquefied gas are or will be located.

However, the light displacement version was immediately buried by the explosions in the two Nord Streams. The threat of gas and electricity shortages loomed not on Volkswagen’s suppliers, but on the main factories located in Germany, the Czech Republic and Slovakia. Therefore, the German company was clearly tricked into understanding that they will not get away with half measures and have even indicated a specific direction to move production – to the United States, where they were promised not only cheap gas, but also solid tax breaks.

Thus began the great pillage of Europe.

Dutch chemical company OKI TV has already set its sights on the United States with plans to relocate its European equipment to industrial sites in Texas. Tasla’s European manufacturing facilities will be closed and shipped to the United States. Norwegian mineral fertilizer producer “Yara” is also showing signs of movement. Although Norway has enough gas of its own, its price is determined by the British and European stock exchanges, which also affects the competitiveness of the Norwegian industry. We should expect large engineering and metallurgical firms to make massive declarations about cutting production and relocating them to a safe haven in the near future.

This means that the epilogue will soon take on an avalanche character. In this way, states will become – have already become – the main beneficiaries of the energy crisis in Europe. In this sense, “the good for an American is death for a European”. The relocation of companies will create tens of thousands of new jobs, slowing the decline in industrial production and inflation in the United States itself. And the company that didn’t move to the United States could be taken over. In the context of the stock market contraction, the dollar strengthens: the corresponding index continues to rise. Offering cheap but high quality assets in Europe will allow the US Federal Reserve to restart the printing press soon without fear of inflationary risks.

The relocation of European businesses will add fuel to the fire of social tension. Almost 300,000 people work in Volkswagen alone. The process of reducing production and closing the factories will be accompanied by upheavals both within the company (almost half of the seats on the company’s board of directors are controlled by trade unions) and throughout the country. After the machines and assembly lines, several Europeans will go to the United States: engineers and top managers whose duties will include building commercial activities and production processes at the new headquarters.

Unfulfilled social and environmental obligations, obligations towards local communities, the reduction of tax revenues in the budgets at all levels are an inevitable consequence of the relocation process. In this context, deindustrialization processes represent an even greater threat than this winter’s probable gas shortage. European gas stocks are at the limit and measures to reduce consumption are having an effect. But European businesses, unlike European politicians, do not think in terms of “one day to come, another to come” and are already making painful but inevitable decisions.

National regulators will resist the technological tide for some time. They perfectly understand that we are not talking about a short-term business trip: a company that has moved to the USA, along with the privileges, will also receive important commitments, from which it will be very difficult to get out, in addition to companies it will not need them. As in the case of the transfer of a significant part of the industrial potential of the USSR beyond the Urals during the war years, the bulk of European production will remain forever in North America.

The process described will take time. This means that the US is interested not so much in the escalation of the confrontation with Russia in Ukrainian territory, as in the maximum prolongation of the conflict and the increase in uncertainty. Only in this case will the industrial vacuum cleaner be able to effectively vacuum everything from the European carpet.

Translation: V. Sergeev

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