Xinhua News Agency, Beijing, January 24 (International Observation) The arms control treaty is expected to be extended
Xinhua News Agency reporter Liu Pinran and Hu Xiaoguang
The United States recently expressed that it seeks to extend the expiring “New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty” for five years. Russia subsequently welcomed this. Analysts believe that the statements of the two sides show that the only remaining arms control treaty between the United States and Russia is expected to be extended. This is of great significance to the two countries and global security, but the contradictions between the two sides will not be resolved.
Renewal is expected
The White House Press Secretary Psaki said on the 21st that the United States seeks to extend the upcoming “New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty” for five years. She said that as the United States and Russia are currently in confrontational relations, the significance of extending the treaty is even more important.
The “New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty” aims to limit the number of strategic nuclear warheads and delivery vehicles deployed by the United States and Russia. After the expiration of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty in 2019, the treaty became the only arms control treaty between the two countries. The Russian side has repeatedly expressed its willingness to extend the treaty without setting preconditions, but the US side is indifferent to this. The two sides held several rounds of negotiations on the issue of contract renewal last year. In October, they proposed to extend the treaty for one year, but no details were finalized. After the then-U.S. President Trump failed his re-election campaign in November, there was no progress on the issue of renewal.
After the administration led by the new US President Biden took office on the 20th of this month, the Trump administration changed its indifferent attitude and made the above-mentioned positive statement the next day, causing the treaty that will expire on February 5 this year to be rejected. The possibility of extension is greatly increased. Some analysts pointed out that, from the perspective of time, it is still too late for the United States and Russia to extend the treaty before February 5, because the relevant procedures are not complicated.
In response to the latest US statement, Russian Presidential Press Secretary Peskov stated on the 22nd that Russia welcomes the political will of the United States to extend the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, but believes that everything depends on the details of the US proposal that have yet to be studied. Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Zakharova said that Russia is ready to contact the US immediately to extend the treaty as soon as possible.
Each has its own considerations
Analysts believe that the United States and Russia have their own considerations behind their positive wishes to extend the “New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty.”
From the Russian perspective, extending the treaty will help maintain its position in the field of international strategic stability, ease confrontation with the United States, and avoid being dragged into a costly arms race.
From the US perspective, the Biden administration believes that extending the treaty can continue to restrict Russia’s strategic nuclear forces in a verifiable manner. Some analysts have pointed out that the United States and Russia have an asymmetrical cycle in the modernization of nuclear weapons. If the treaty fails, Russia may gain a comparative advantage in the next few years, and extending the treaty can ensure effective nuclear deterrence by the United States.
At the same time, after the Trump administration frequently undermined the international arms control system, the Biden administration hopes to extend the treaty and discuss new issues with Russia on this basis, so as to show its allies and the international community its commitment to arms control issues. , To reshape the credibility of the United States.
In addition, support for arms control is the consistent position of the Democratic Party and Biden. Renewing the contract is in their domestic political interests and can also fulfill Biden’s campaign promises.
Contradictory
The United States and Russia’s positive willingness to extend the “New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty” is undoubtedly a bright spot in the recent relations between the two countries. However, analysts believe that the long-term tense US-Russian relationship may ease slightly because of this, but it will not fundamentally improve.
Some American media pointed out that the United States and Russia both accused each other of interfering in internal affairs, and that the differences between the two sides on issues such as Ukraine, Syria, and cyber security are difficult to bridge. It is difficult for the two countries to substantially improve their relations in the short term.
Biden “named” Russia before last year’s presidential election to undermine the US security and alliance system, which is the biggest threat to the United States. Secretary of State Blincol, nominated by Biden, made it clear in a congressional hearing on the 19th that the Biden administration will use policy tools including sanctions to ensure that Russia pays for its actions.
Russian experts generally believe that Biden will not change the fundamentals of US-Russian relations, nor will it change the basic tone of US policy toward Russia. Containing Russia is still the goal of the US policy towards Russia, and the deep-rooted contradictions between the two sides cannot be eased in a short time. The director of the Institute of the United States and Canada of the Russian Academy of Sciences Garbuzov made it clear that the distrust between Russia and the United States will continue during the Biden administration.
Even in the field of arms control, given the structural contradictions between the United States and Russia, the extension of the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty cannot resolve the contradictions between the two sides. The US hopes to sign a new arms control treaty to restrict Russia’s development of new types of weapons in order to avoid threats to US strategic advantages. The Russian side believes that the US has not yet fulfilled its nuclear disarmament obligations under the treaty, and that US anti-missile systems and space weapons should also be included in the new arms control treaty.
Analysts pointed out that even if the United States and Russia renew their contracts, subsequent arms control negotiations will be very difficult, and the game between the two countries in this field will continue. (Reporter involved: Sun Ping)
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