“Templeton” indicates investment opportunities in 64 years amid the crisis Recommend short-term risk factors

HoonSmart.com >> “Templeton” sees better investment outlook in ’64, we expect economies in many regions to improve as the world is transitioning to the post-COVID era. But there are still many risks in the short term. Recommend investors to prepare for While pointing out investment opportunities in the midst of the crisis

Dr. Michael Hasensteb, Executive Vice President Chief Investment Officer, Templeton Global Macro, looked at the investment outlook for the year ’64 through analysis, stating that At first glance, it looks like nothing in 2021 can be as bad as 2020.We have faced the worst economic crisis in 80 years and the worst global health crisis in 100 years – a devastating event. To the life and living of people around the world The International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects that by the end of 2020, the world economy will shrink by 4.4%, there is still a lot of light to see when it enters 2021.

“We are approaching the point of severe economic change last year. It will become an introduction to a new chapter in the economy of the future. The IMF also forecast the global economy in 2021 to expand 5.2%, better from last year’s lowest level. The hopeful vaccine is being tested around the world in a number of cases and will be delivered to countries around the world by the spring of 2021, which is expected to have the potential to reduce the spread of COVID-19. In the second half of the year If we look at the optimism, we are moving towards a better situation. ”

However, the current situation of the epidemic is much more severe than expected. Second outbreak of COVID-19 Shocking highs in Europe and the US in the final months of 2020 have forced many regions to return to lockdown measures. The worst outbreaks in some areas are likely to occur in the last month of 2020 through the first quarter of 2021 in the absence of mitigation measures. There will be more severe economic hardships every month, with intensification escalations and disrupted economic activity. For many people and businesses, “time” is a key factor they face in the face of unemployment or bankruptcy. Each day of business interruption There is no income and damage, including long-term economic impact. To make matters worse, the current conditions tend to plummet even further before their final nod of improvement. “

From an investment angle A positive outlook for the second half of 2021 should be balanced with careful close-up of acute risks. The outbreak is devastating to continued economic activity. This results in a significant risk of a large number of financial assets. The broader impact of declining inflation is likely to persist until economic activity is fully operational. We remain wary of risky assets for the second wave of COVID-19 outbreak forecasts. In winter

However, many types of long-term investment opportunities are starting to appear more and more. We expect this to be a time gap for some investments. Due to wide-ranging changes in basic macroeconomic and virus epidemic control measures in some countries. COVID-19 cases It is expected to hit its peak in winter before the vaccine could drop the number of outbreaks in summer 2021. The timing and efficacy of the vaccine will determine economic activity and the valuation of key financial assets in the United States. This year

In addition, it is very important to create a plan to implement an economic direction outside of the impulse of 2021. The growth rate during this year’s recovery will not continue to be affected until 2022 and beyond. The growth of the world’s gross domestic product (GDP) will be moderate, with a 3.8% growth during In 2022-2025, according to IMF forecasts, developed economies will grow at an average of 2.2%.

Emerging markets and developing countries will grow at an average of 4.9%. Ultimately, stimulus policies will decline as governments burdened with high debt before the outbreak will have limited financial statements and a higher fiscal deficit. Public debt to gross domestic production ratio (Debt-to-GDP) rise in all countries. Groundbreaking stimulus policy Such as Modern Monetary Theory and Debt Monetization are likely to receive more political attention in the coming years, while increasing the risk that it creates. Economic structural damage from governments without financial discipline. In our view, both domestically and geographically, in the next ten years, the efficiency factors in state administration will be more focused.

The complex dimension of the current crisis is the pre-epidemic state of global instability. Political tensions rise Rising nationalism and political divisions have made it difficult for many countries to find the necessary standpoint to tackle internal and external challenges. Laws that are out of reach that will create resistance or objection.

In addition, the trend of globalization or (Deglobalization) that existed before the COVID-19 outbreak. It will be accelerated faster as many countries turn to more domestic concerns. International trade relations are in decline among major economies in recent years. The structural shift to domestic production and regional supply chains will have a profound impact on the global economy and financial markets for years to come.

Environmental factors Social governance and governance (ESG) will play a vital role in shaping the global postcovid era. The good cooperation of society and governments could be a catalyst to accelerate recovery, or even hinder the country’s post-COVID recovery. Sadly, we are seeing an unhealthy factor of ESG in emerging markets during the epidemic. Countries lacking preparedness for epidemics due to poor healthcare systems and underdeveloped infrastructure or lack of preparedness from economic crises due to fiscal imbalances. High levels of debt and dependence on the external sector These countries are often severely damaged. In contrast, countries with strong foundations have stronger financial institutions. Have a low level of debt And there is a wide variety of economies that generally have a good recovery.

Dr. Michael expects changes to develop in many regions as the world transitions to the post-COVID era. However, there are still quite a few risks in the short term. Lockdown and regional restrictions continue to stem the spread of the disease. Travel or transport restrictions remain the most effective method of suppressing the spread of the virus until the vaccine is ready for wide distribution. Until then, the lost income and affected gross demand will damage the macroeconomic environment. We expect Safe-Haven Assets to remain important during the severe months of the epidemic.

But in the end, secure and safe assets become less important when Novak Zeke can survive the epidemic. In the future, we still have an opportunity in some local currency markets while wary of near-term risks. We remain positive this year given the clinical potential to mitigate and mitigate the COVID-19 epidemic.

All investments carry risk, including the risk of losing your principal. In general, bond prices move in the opposite direction to interest rates. Therefore, when the price of the bond in an investment portfolio increases with the interest rate. The value of the investment portfolio may decrease. Risks that require special attention are associated with investing in offshore securities, including development risks related to politics and economy. Trading guidelines Availability of information Financial markets and exchange rate fluctuations and restrictive policies Government debt securities come with a variety of risks, in addition to those associated with general foreign debt and securities, but including: The risk that the government agency is unable to pay interest and repay the principal for public debt.

Investing in emerging-market countries is subject to all the risks of conventional foreign investment and carries additional risks due to the lack of legal, political, business and social security framed in favor of the stock exchange.

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