Ukrainian crisis

Analysis by CNN’s Tim Lister and Anna Chernova

(CNN) — Losing a single general during a war going badly can be seen as unfortunate. Losing two in 24 hours sounds like negligence, but that’s what happened to the Russian leadership in southern Ukraine, and the two cases further illustrate the shortcomings and opposition among the Russian military leadership.

Early on Tuesday, a Ukrainian missile hit a hotel in the coastal town of Berdyansk that had been captured by the Russian military.

Among the many Russian casualties was Gen. Oleg Tsukov, deputy commander of the Southern Military District and a key figure in Russia’s defense effort for occupied regions in southern Ukraine. He is believed to be the oldest of nearly 10 Russian generals killed in the campaign to date.

It seems to have been no secret that the 58th Combined Arms Army made the hotel their headquarters – but Tsukov nevertheless moved in, after being badly wounded last fall in a Ukrainian raid near Svatov.

The 58th Combined Arms Army is a crucial element in defending the frontlines in the western Zaporizhia region, where Ukrainian forces are trying to achieve a breakthrough in their counter-offensive.

But there was worse, much worse, to come.

Late Wednesday, a 4-minute audio message emerged from Gen. Ivan Popov, commander of the 58th Combined Arms Army, in which he criticized what he called the “betrayal” of the Russian military leadership and “shortcomings that caused mass casualties among his men.”

His message emphasized the main deficiencies in the Russian defenses, which the Ukrainians are clearly trying to exploit by bombing with long-range missile batteries, and Popov said that he “raised questions about the lack of anti-missile, the absence of artillery reconnaissance posts and the large numbers of dead and wounded among our brothers by enemy artillery fire.” I also raised a number of other issues and expressed all of them at the highest level.”

According to the Institute for the Study of War, Popov’s complaints may reveal important problems for the Russians such as that they “lack operational reserves that would allow them to conduct personnel rotations defending against Ukrainian counterattacks, and that Russian defensive lines may be fragile.”

In his message, Popov launched what appears to be a bitter attack on the chief of staff of the Russian army, Valery Gerasimov, where he said: “The Ukrainian armed forces could not penetrate our army from the front, but our commander struck us from behind, beheading the army in the most difficult moments in a treacherous and despicable way.” .

Popov’s complaint extended to Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, where he said: “Apparently, the senior commanders sensed the danger, and quickly, one day, prepared an order for the Minister of Defense, removed me from the order, and got rid of me.”

“tremendous support”

Russian military bloggers indicated that both Tskov and Popov inspired their men with loyalty. Tskov, 51, was a rising star in the Russian army. In 2021, he gave a speech at a Kremlin ceremony attended by Russian President Vladimir Putin for military students.

Military blogger Ribar noted in a long commentary that “Popov enjoys tremendous support from the soldiers: the front-line fighters were deeply demoralized by the news of the simple and obvious dismissal of General Popov.”

Popov’s last statements as commander were already aimed at his troops. “Good night, dear fighters, beloved relatives. I am always available to you. It is an honor to be with you,” he said.

Losing commanders who inspire loyalty is not only negligence, it is also potentially dangerous, and it is not as if the 58th Combined Arms Army single-handedly lost the Wagner mercenary group’s insurrection at the end of June. He has not been seen since.

As the revolt began, General Oleg Surovikin, the commander of the Russian Air Force, appeared in a video clip pleading with Wagner’s chief Yevgeny Prigozhin to stop his rebellion. Surovikin was on good terms with Prigozhin, who expressed his admiration for the general.

Indeed, it was Surovkin who orchestrated an orderly withdrawal from Kherson last November, and won praise for doing so, after being appointed commander of Russian forces in Ukraine.

But then he was replaced in January, and he has not been seen since Wagner rebelled, amid intense speculation about his status, and the head of the State Duma Defense Committee, Andrei Kartapolov, said Wednesday that he was curiously “resting” in the middle of a war that is not going anywhere. Fine, the Kremlin has turned questions about Surovikin over to the Defense Ministry.

On Thursday Kartapolov found himself answering more questions, this time about Popov. “I’m sure they will solve the problems,” he said. “Popov should serve in the army. He’s a promising general. He has everything.”

Kartapolov had once commanded the 58th Arms Army himself, but Kartapolov also had what could be considered a backdoor message for the Ministry of Defence, adding on Telegram: “The most important skill of any chief is the ability to see problems and hear his subordinates. Therefore, I believe those who are supposed to They do, they heard, they saw, and they will take action.”

Confusion and uncertainty

Russian military bloggers were less reticent. This is not the first time they have raised the issue of settling scores. Ribar, one of the most prominent bloggers, said Popov’s fate illustrates the “witch hunt” that began after Prigozhin’s rebellion.

The unofficial platform VChK-OGPU said on Wednesday that a “war” inside the Defense Ministry continues. It claimed that it was Gerasimov who demanded Popov’s dismissal, accusing him of “creating panic and blackmailing the leadership”.

The platform alleged that Popov “threatened to go straight to Putin and that Gerasimov would then remove him from office and send him to the front lines”.

Popov’s whereabouts are unknown

Amidst all the ambiguity and confusion, the Russian Ministry of Defense maintains silence. There was no news of Tsukkov two days after his death. No dramatic dismissal of Popov, no comment on Surovikin’s whereabouts.

What the Ministry of Defense offers, when its leadership is questioned, is a well-arranged appearance by Minister Shoigu, and Gerasimov. Shortly after the mutiny, Shoigu is seen on an inspection tour somewhere in Ukraine (although the time of the video shooting remains questionable).

As rumors swirled about Surovikin, Gerasimov was prominently seen on a conference call with Surovikin’s deputy.

Western experts say that the small rivalries, driven in part by rampant corruption, permeate the Ministry of Defense and many levels of the armed forces, despite the urgent needs of the campaign in Ukraine, which means that the military campaign will suffer setbacks and confusion, and the loss of leaders is another sign that Russia’s “special military operation” appears to be less distinguished and successful.

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2023-07-14 01:22:12