technical analysis

In the last trading session, VTB shares fell by 0.86%, to 2.53 lots. The securities looked worse than the market. Trading volume exceeded 3.5 billion rubles.

Short term picture

• At the end of last week, VTB shares were actively declining from the maximum reached in October. The bearish divergence on the RSI on the 4-hour chart has materialized. The triggers for the fall were a report of a decrease in profits and an increase in the key rate above expectations.

• Bank shares have lost most of their rise from the autumn low, the price has consolidated under the moving averages, and the technical picture as a whole has moved to the side of sellers. On the technical side, there is room for recovery, but it will require a stable market. In this case, buyers can return the price above the moving averages and the level of 2.58, then the targets will again be directed at 2.69. The deterioration of the situation should be judged by testing the area of ​​2.473–2.448.

External background

Asian markets today are trading in different directions and do not show uniform dynamics. Futures for the S&P 500 index are rising by 0.3%, Brent oil is in the red by 1% and is around $89.6.

Resistance levels: 2.58 / 2.69 / 2.73
Support levels: 2.473–2.448 / 2.42 / 2.37

Long term picture

• In 2022, the bank came under Western sanctions – this factor had a significant impact on the shares, which reached a historical low. In the spring of 2023, quotes began to recover, driven by the purchase of Otkritie Bank and a stable financial position.

• In September 2023, quotes updated their annual maximum and went into correction along with the market. They are currently near EMA21 and EMA50. The RSI indicator is unloaded, but the possibility of further decline is still present.

• The long-term view is moderately positive: once level 3 is overcome, the benchmarks will rise to a fundamental assessment of 3.5.

BCS World of Investments

2023-10-31 13:12:10
#VTB #Lost #entire #rise #Technical #analysis #BCS #Express #10.30.2023

At the Friday trading session on the Moscow Exchange, the typical Sberbank and Gazprom are not in the top in terms of trading turnover. At 12:20 Moscow time the following stocks took the lead:

• VK: trade turnover – 7.4 billion rubles.
• Mechel-AO: RUB 5.0 billion.
• Norilsk Nickel: RUB 3.7 billion.
• Yandex: 2.4 billion rubles.

Ordinary shares Sberbank in 6th place with 2.2 billion rubles. turnover, Gazprom even lower – 1.1 billion rubles.

High investor activity in stocks VC is associated with the resumption of trading in securities after a pause since September 19. The suspension of trading was due to the exchange of receipts for shares as part of redomiciliation.

Market participants’ interest in shares Mechela has been maintained since yesterday – on Thursday the securities took first place in terms of trading turnover, which happened extremely rarely. Specific drivers for such strong growth did not appear. At the same time, the movement looks fundamentally justified, given the generally favorable conditions on the coking coal and steel markets and the persistence of a relatively weak ruble exchange rate.

Activation of buyers in Nornickel, is likely due to an extended period of low stock volatility. The stock has lagged behind the indices since the beginning of the year amid lackluster price movements for key metals and the refusal to pay dividends for 2022.

The growth of shares is justified; the securities remain cheap relative to fair levels. The main medium-term driver for the stock is interim dividends. The company noted that if conditions are favorable, it may resume payments. Information on this issue may appear in the next couple of months.

Increased activity in Yandex remains the same as the day before. The trigger for increased interest in the paper could be news about legal reorganization. The deal to divide Yandex’s business into Russian and international is a key point in the company’s case. The reorganization may be perceived by the market as a step towards completing the transaction.

The fundamental view on Yandex shares is positive; the company shows high revenue growth rates. The completion of the separation and the emergence of greater clarity on development prospects could become strong drivers for the revaluation of securities.

BCS World of Investments

2023-10-20 09:28:13
#Atypical #leaders #Investors #forgot #Sberbank #Gazprom

Mechel shares rose by 2.38% in the last trading session. The closing price was RUB 232.27. The securities traded better than the market. The trading volume amounted to 9.13 billion rubles.

Short term picture

• The stock hit its next upside targets of 240.9-245.9 midweek. After the pullback, a new growth impulse appeared. The technical picture on the hourly chart is now on the buyers’ side.

• Buyers are aiming for growth in the maximum area of ​​the daily chart of 266.4–276.2, which is close to the safe targets of 275.6–286 of the weekly structure. The growth scenario is a priority until the minimum of 233.07 is broken. When the level of 275.6 is reached, it is safer to start taking long speculative positions.

• On the daily chart, the RSI curve is at 74 pips. On the 4-hour chart, the stock is above its 50- and 200-day moving average. First of all, we monitor the resistance and support levels: 276 and 233.07.

External background

The external background is neutral in the morning. S&P 500 index futures are down 0.1%. Asia-Pacific indices are trading predominantly in the red zone. Brent oil is up 0.2%.

Resistance levels: 266 / 276 / 286
Support levels: 233,07 / 200,5 / 185,5

Long term picture

Goals and scenarios

• The monthly structure formed during 2022 indicates long-term safe growth targets of 191–206 (achieved). Maximum target 269.

• A new growth impulse in the weekly chart has formed – safe targets are 275.6–286. This scenario is relevant until the low of 184.85 is broken.

• The long-term structure of the movement indicates that after the correction and trade, continuation of long-term growth will be more organic. Until the price breaks the 161.9 mark, the long-term uptrend is relevant.

• The weakening of the ruble in 2023 increases the attractiveness of export-oriented companies. Together with high prices for coking coal, this creates a favorable background for the growth of Mechel shares. The company historically supplies most of its coal to the Asia-Pacific region and is weakly affected by EU sanctions.

• The positive environment allows Mechel to reduce its debt burden and also increase investment in fixed assets. In the future, this should result in a restoration of production volumes. An additional positive driver is that the company should not come under pressure from windfall tax.

Read also: Detailed description of all technical indicators

BCS World of Investments

2023-10-20 05:37:30
#Mechel #growth #target #Technical #analysis #BCS #Express #10.20.2023

On the previous trading day, LUKOIL shares rose by 1.26%, closing at 7335 rub. The paper looked at market level. The share trading volume on the main market amounted to RUB 10.8 billion. with an average of 8.1 billion rubles per month.

Short term picture

• LUKOIL shares continued to grow on Monday, but the dynamics slowed to the general market level. At the same time, trading turnover remained double-digit, indicating high buyer activity.

• Quotes have come close to the upper border of the ascending channel. Also very close is the level of historical highs – 7,530 rubles.

• The RSI oscillator signal line has almost reached 80%. A high level that increases the risks of correction in the short term.

• Three rising candles in a row have formed on the daily chart. At the same time, with each candle there is a damping of the growing impulse. Such formations often end with a correction.

• Judging by the combination of factors, we can say that the accumulated overbought status of the instrument is quite high. If the instrument is able to show a final powerful impulse to update the maximum, it is likely to be followed by a sharp correction. For short-term traders, this is an interesting opportunity to take profits.

External background

The external background in the morning is neutral. Asian indices are trading in negative territory. S&P 500 futures fall 0.1%. Brent oil is down 0.1% today.

Support levels: 7100 / 7000 / 6800
Resistance levels: 7400 / 7530 / 7600

LUKOIL chart online

Long term picture

The long-term view on the stock is moderately positive. Fundamental factors form a favorable picture. High oil prices, a weak ruble and the prospect of buying back shares from non-residents are largely included in prices, but can still play in favor of growth. When fixed above RUB 7,100. the target range may shift to the area of ​​7500–7600 rubles.

Read also: Detailed description of all technical indicators

BCS World of Investments

2023-10-17 07:07:30
#LUKOIL #step #maximum #Technical #analysis #BCS #Express