Sunday

It has been more than 40 days since the Israel-Hamas war began. Since the ground war, Israel has carried out as many as 14,000 airstrikes, causing more than 11,000 Palestinian civilian deaths. The international community’s public opinion toward Israel is worsening, and the UN Security Council recently adopted a resolution calling for an end to humanitarian warfare. Amid the mediation of the international community, Israel and Hamas are conducting last-minute negotiations for the release of hostages and a temporary cessation of fighting. As expectations for a ceasefire rise, Bloomberg News recently reported that the United States and Israel have begun reviewing future plans for the Gaza Strip after Hamas is ousted.

looked at various discussions on how to run the Gaza Strip after the war between Israel and Hamas ends, and what realistic alternatives are available.

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US seeks to replace Hamas with Palestinian Authority

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The US Biden administration basically supports the ‘Two States Solution’, where Israel and Palestine coexist. The United States wants the moderate Palestinian Authority, currently in charge of the West Bank, to rule the Gaza Strip after the war.

Secretary of State Tony Blinken recently said that once Israel’s military operation is over, the Gaza Strip should be integrated with the West Bank, which is controlled by the Palestinian Authority. This means opposing Israel’s reoccupation of the Gaza Strip while simultaneously eliminating Hamas and transplanting West Bank power to the Gaza Strip. He also said that if he could not do so immediately, he would consider interim measures involving international organizations that could help provide security and governance.

Currently, Palestine has a government organization under the Palestinian Authority, which was launched in 1994, and several political parties such as ‘Fatah’, ‘Hamas’, ‘Third Way’, and ‘Palestinian People’s Party’. Fatah, a moderate party, is currently the ruling party representing the Palestinian Authority in the West Bank. On the other hand, Hamas, an armed political faction, defeated Fatah in the 2006 general election and ruled the Gaza Strip, but has continued to be in conflict with the Palestinian Authority due to conflict over routes. Currently, the international community recognizes the Palestinian Authority as the representative of the Palestinian Authority, led by Fatah in the West Bank. The Washington Institute for Near East Policy (WINEP), an American think tank, proposes establishing a transitional government to rule the Gaza Strip so that the Palestinian Authority can gradually take on the role of government at least three years after the end of the war.

However, questions are also being raised about whether the Palestinian Authority will be able to take over governance of the Gaza Strip after the war. This is because Fatah, which leads the autonomous government, has lost support from Gaza residents due to corruption and incompetence. The Israeli government also opposes this plan, saying that the Palestinian Authority has failed to demilitarize the Gaza Strip and suppress radical forces. In addition, there are many residents linked to Hamas, so it is unrealistic for the Palestinian Authority to rule the Gaza Strip again. Recently, Palestinian Authority Prime Minister Mohammad Chwtayyeh also stated that if Gaza is ruled without political compensation, such as the establishment of a Palestinian state, it will inevitably be reduced to a subcontractor of Israel and the United States.

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Israel seeks to seize control of the Gaza Strip

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Israel has very different ideas from the United States. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu pointed out the Gaza Strip’s failure to suppress demilitarization and radical forces and said that the post-war Palestinian Authority should not rule the Gaza Strip. Recently, Israeli President Yitzhak Herzog also said that the Gaza Strip cannot be left empty and that a strong military must be deployed for the time being to prevent forces like Hamas from reemerging.

Park Hyeon-do, a professor at Sogang University’s Euromena Institute, said, “The Israeli government will not allow Palestine to rule because it wants to use this opportunity to wipe out Hamas forces and build a Jewish state.” In the end, Israel ignored the public opinion of the international community and said, He pointed out that they will try to carry out their will to control the Gaza Strip.

However, some argue that Israel does not intend to reoccupy the Gaza Strip. This is ultimately interpreted as an intention to establish a third force as the government and for Israel to control the Gaza Strip. In response, Netanahu’s former national security adviser said, “Israel will be responsible for complete security no matter which group is responsible for internal affairs. All goods entering the Gaza Strip are closely monitored by Israel, and Israeli security forces can enter the Gaza Strip at any time and anywhere. “We will eliminate potential threats,” he emphasized.

It is pointed out that the idea of ​​Israel controlling the Gaza Strip is also unrealistic. The tunnel war currently being waged in the Gaza Strip is not easy for Israel. This is because it is very difficult to carry out operations in tunnels because night vision goggles and radios do not work. Even after the war, it is almost an impossible idea for Israel to control and seize the entire Gaza Strip, which has tunnels everywhere.

There appears to be no concrete alternative as to who the third force will rule the Gaza Strip instead of the Palestinian Authority or Hamas. It is pointed out that there is no solution as to how to relocate the refugees who were forcibly evacuated to the southern region or how to rebuild the completely destroyed infrastructure of the Gaza Strip.

Seong Il-kwang, a professor at Korea University’s Center for Middle East Islam, said, “I believe this war will end in two to three weeks at the shortest. Netanyahu is now insisting on complete security control over the Gaza Strip and rule by a third force, but there is no one other than the Palestinian Authority. “In fact, there is no alternative. Israel’s claim that it will reoccupy the Gaza Strip and force Palestinians to move out of the Gaza Strip is purely for domestic politics. It is impossible to reoccupy the Gaza Strip after already withdrawing in 2005,” he pointed out. did.

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How can neighboring countries participate?

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Recently, Bloomberg News reported that in order to govern the Gaza Strip after the war, 1) a plan to deploy multinational forces, including the US military, 2) a plan to establish a peacekeeping force modeled on the 1979 Egypt-Israel Peace Treaty, 3) a plan for the UN to temporarily supervise the Gaza Strip. presented. In order to rebuild the Gaza Strip after Israel withdraws after the war, the stationing of multinational forces or peacekeeping forces to maintain order and security for the time being seems inevitable. However, in a situation where anti-Israel and anti-American sentiments are heightened, it is questionable whether a Western-centered multinational force can safely perform its mission in the Gaza Strip.

The UN participation scenario is an idea that the UN, along with regional partners, should take responsibility for the security of the Gaza Strip during post-war recovery and in establishing a government through democratic elections for the Palestinian people. However, with the current relationship between the UN and Israel greatly deteriorating, Israel may oppose the UN-led peacekeeping force plan.

Through the peace agreement of 1979, the United States formed a multinational peacekeeping force from more than four countries and dispatched it to the Sinai Peninsula along with a civilian observation group, which Israel currently views as the most realistic alternative. A plan is also being discussed where the United States and the Western world will form a multinational force, but Arab countries such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE will participate in the peacekeeping force. The Near East Policy Institute suggests that for Israel’s exit strategy from the Gaza Strip to be successful, the participation of the five Arab countries that have signed peace agreements with Israel, including Egypt, Jordan, UAE, Bahrain, and Morocco, is essential.

However, if US troops are deployed to a conflict area where the threat of terrorism is ever-present, there is a possibility that it will place a significant burden on the Biden administration ahead of next year’s presidential election. If it is difficult for the U.S. military to participate, it may be difficult to move forward because there is no leader to lead the multinational force. Arab countries are also strongly advocating for the establishment of a Palestinian state, and without political compromise, reconstruction of the Gaza Strip or participation in peacekeeping forces becomes uncertain.

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If Netanyahu falls from office, will it become a new variable?

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Currently, the positions of the United States and Israel regarding post-war plans for the Gaza Strip are very different, so it is expected that it will take considerable time and effort to find common ground. In addition, there are concerns that if the damage to Palestinian civilians becomes known to the world after Israel’s withdrawal, terrorist acts by Islamic extremists may increase rapidly in Europe and other countries. In order to prevent this unfortunate situation, the international community’s movement to promote the establishment of a postwar Palestinian state in accordance with the 1993 Oslo Agreements can be accelerated.

The variable is the fall of the Netanyahu government, which strongly opposes the establishment of a Palestinian state. Currently, Israeli public opinion toward the Netanyahu government is also quite negative. In a recent opinion poll, 80% of Israelis said Prime Minister Netanyahu should be held responsible for the Hamas attacks. In addition, in terms of approval ratings, it was found that he was lagging behind Benny Gantz, former Minister of Defense and leader of the National United Party, who is participating in the war cabinet. If Prime Minister Netanyahu and the far-right cabinet are replaced by moderates after the war, we can even expect a revival of the Oslo Agreement, which stipulates that the Gaza Strip will be ruled by the Palestinian Authority and a Palestinian state will be established in the long term.

Professor Park Hyun-do said, “Even if Benny Gantz or a moderate prime minister comes to power instead of Netanyahu, it is difficult to expect a big change.” He added, “Because Israel itself has already been on a right-wing path for a long time, there will not be a big difference in its policy toward Palestine.” He pointed out.

Professor Seong Il-gwang said, “There is a possibility that Prime Minister Netanyahu will step down once the war is over to some extent. If he is replaced by a more moderate regime, there is a possibility that the Palestinian issue will progress further than it is now in accordance with the principles advocated by the United States and the demands of the international community. “There is,” he said.

[저작권자 @머니투데이, 무단전재 및 재배포 금지]