New Understanding of Magma’s Internal Mechanics Poised to Revolutionize Volcano Eruption Prediction
PARIS – A groundbreaking finding regarding internal friction within magma is challenging existing models of volcanic eruption prediction, potentially offering a pathway to more accurate forecasts and improved safety measures for at-risk populations. Researchers have found that volcanoes possess a “mechanical self-regulation capacity” stemming from shear forces deep within the magma chamber, enabling a gradual, almost silent degassing process before any potential explosive event.
Traditionally, eruption prediction has centered on monitoring surface-level indicators like pressure, gas emissions, and microseisms.Though,this new research highlights the critical role of previously overlooked internal forces that alter magma behavior before it even nears the surface. The internal friction allows magma to release gases through a “deep degassing” process, effectively easing pressure and potentially preventing or delaying eruptions.
The phenomenon was observed in the case of Mount Saint Helens. In 1980, predictions pointed to an immediate, explosive eruption, but the volcano initially produced a slow-moving lava dome.Researchers now believe the magma had already lost a notable portion of its gas content due to shear forces at depth, partially emptying before reaching the surface and delaying the eventual, landslide-triggered explosion.
“This observation changes everything,” researchers state. Integrating these “invisible internal forces” into existing forecast models is now considered a key advancement. Understanding the formation of degassing channels and bubble networks within the magma could allow scientists to differentiate between a volcano undergoing harmless degassing and one poised for a perilous eruption.
This nuanced understanding promises to refine alert strategies and, ultimately, save lives in volcanic hazard zones. The research suggests a future where scientists can more accurately assess the true threat level of a volcano, moving beyond reliance on solely surface-level observations.