East Coast Gas Supply Faces Shortfall Risk,ACCC Warns – Long-Term Solutions Needed
Sydney,Australia – June 30,2025 – A new report from the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC) paints a concerning picture of the east coast gas market,revealing a potential shortfall risk in late 2025 and throughout 2026. Despite a recent easing in gas prices, the long-term outlook remains precarious, demanding urgent attention to unlock new domestic supply.
The ACCC’s latest gas inquiry report, released today, highlights that a shortfall could occur if Queensland LNG producers export all their uncontracted gas .Southern states are increasingly reliant on gas from Queensland as their own reserves dwindle, exacerbating the vulnerability.
“Gas prices eased over the past 6 months, reflecting movements in international prices…However, prices continue to be higher than pre-2022 levels,” stated ACCC Commissioner Anna Brakey. “Concerningly, supply into the domestic market has fallen as that time and gas is increasingly being sold on a short-term basis, posing challenges for gas users.”
While sufficient gas reserves exist to meet demand for the next decade, development is hampered by policy, technical, and commercial obstacles. the ACCC stresses the need to address thes “underlying barriers to more efficient investment in domestic supply.” Queensland’s gas reserves, largely controlled by LNG producers, will be critical in meeting east coast demand.
The report also notes that structural shortfalls are still projected from 2028 unless new gas supply is brought online. This underscores the urgency of addressing long-term energy security and affordability.
The ACCC’s findings provide a crucial evidence base for the upcoming Government Gas Market Review and will inform discussions on policy and regulation.
Key Takeaways:
Shortfall Risk: Potential gas shortfall in Q4 2025 and throughout 2026.
Queensland Reliance: Southern states increasingly dependent on Queensland gas.
Price Volatility: Prices remain elevated compared to pre-2022 levels.
Investment Barriers: Policy, technical, and commercial factors hinder new supply development.
* Long-Term Concerns: Structural shortfalls projected from 2028 without new supply.
Call to Action:
Stakeholders – including government, industry, and consumers – must prioritize addressing the barriers to domestic gas supply to ensure a secure and affordable energy future for Australia.