Austrians will vote on Sunday in parliamentary elections, which opinion polls show the country’s far-right Freedom Party (FPÖ) is likely to narrowly win for the first time in its history.

The FPÖ, one of Europe’s oldest far-right parties, leads the polls with 28 percent of the vote, according to a survey conducted in early September by the Market-Lazarsfeld Institute.

Even if the party wins the projected percentage, it is unlikely to be able to form a majority.

Finding a coalition partner to form a government with could also be a challenge, as several other parties, including the ruling conservative Austrian People’s Party (ÖVP), have ruled out entering into a coalition with them.

Nevertheless, if the FPÖ succeeds in taking power as the lead coalition partner, Austria will join several other European countries where the government is pushing further to the right, having won support with an anti-immigration and broadly Eurosceptic platform.

How far right is the FPÖ?

The manifesto of the FPÖ and its leader Herbert Kickl is anti-immigrant, decidedly Eurosceptic and proposes a ban on what it describes as “political Islam”.

His plan plans to cut provisions for asylum seekers and irregular immigrants, as well as block family reunification visas to Austria.

He has also touted a commitment to “re-immigration” – a vaguely worded strategy of returning people to their country of origin, possibly including people born in Austria.

He has also said he opposes EU sanctions against Russia and further aid to Ukraine.

“With Kickl, the party entered the territory of the far right, which is a badge it wears with pride,” Valentina Ausserladscheider, assistant professor of economic sociology at the University of Vienna, told Euronews.

“He calls himself ‘Volkskanzler’, or people’s chancellor, which is a problematic concept because of its connection to the historical legacy of the Third Reich.”

For others, however, Kickl’s charisma allowed him to tap into the concerns of Austrians in a way that other party leaders did not.

“Kickl can be thoughtful and in some ways is a better communicator than the other Austrian party leaders,” said Heinisch Reinhard, a professor of comparative Austrian politics at the University of Salzburg.

The FPÖ is no stranger to Austrian public opinion, having twice been the junior partner in governing coalitions.

“Not long ago they were in coalition with the leading conservative party, which had already moved the country to the right on things like integration and skepticism towards the EU,” Reinhardt said.

“Ideologically, the FPÖ is not particularly dogmatic, apart from its stance on immigration, but it tends to successfully incorporate the grievances that Austrians have. They tend to look towards Viktor Orbán and the Hungarian model.”

What concerns the Austrians?

The cost of living and immigration are the two main concerns facing Austrians, according to a survey conducted by the European Commission in autumn 2023.

The country has traditionally taken a tough stance on immigration, with tougher immigration rules included in the manifestos of the three parties that garnered the highest percentages in the pre-election period.

The far-right has blamed migration and the war in Ukraine for Austria’s high inflation, which has been stuck above the EU average for almost two years as growth is subdued.

“The FPÖ has successfully managed to blame the government for the way it has dealt with key issues,” said Ausserladscheider.

“He was able to take these more geopolitical problems and break them down in a way that suggested it was something that was hurting the Austrian people, which had worked when you were actually seeing energy prices going up and inflationary pressures hitting people.” .

The party has capitalized on the fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic, sharply criticizing Austria’s current governing coalition for its handling of the latter part of the pandemic, calling it an unacceptable curtailment of civil liberties and fueling conspiracy theories about the effectiveness of Austria’s vaccination campaign.

What will happen next?

The party has struggled to maintain allies in Austrian politics, with the ÖVP publicly ruling out joining a coalition with the FPÖ as a junior partner.

The ÖVP, the center-left Social Democratic Party (SPÖ) and the green and liberal political party NEOS may, however, decide to cooperate with the FPÖ, depending on the election result.

“We have seen at the regional level, parties saying they will not cooperate with the FPÖ before the election, but eventually doing so,” said Ausserladscheider.

After the polls close at 5pm on Sunday and the final votes are counted, the largest party in the new parliament is traditionally called upon to form a government. Coalition negotiations could potentially take months.

If the FPÖ succeeds in forming a coalition, it will join many other far-right parties in power across Europe.

“It is potentially problematic for the European Union project because the more nationalist, anti-European parties are in governments, the less likely the European project will survive and the less integrated the Union will be on certain measures.”