Petrobras shares tumbled over 2% in midday trading following the release of โits 2026-2030 strategic Plan,disappointing investors โwho anticipated larger short-term capital expenditure (Capex) cuts adn the promise of exceptional dividends. The stock โฃdip reflects market concern over the company’sโ optimisticโค projections for oil prices and exchange rates,despiteโ assurances of sensitivityโ analyses outlining potentialโ downside risks.
The market reaction centersโข on the plan’s โCapex reductions,โข which were moreโ heavily weighted towards โฃtheโข long โterm than initially expected. While the plan projects ordinary dividends between US$45 billion and US$50 billion, the absence of an extraordinary dividend-and indications it won’t materialize-fueled investor disappointment. JPMorgan โขanalysts noted the market had already priced in roughly $1 billion โคinโฃ Capex cuts for โค2026, โคbut โthe most significant reductions are slated for future years.”Although it came generallyโ within the market consensus, looking atโค the strategicโข planโข in detail, the market also expectedโ some short-term Capex cuts. So, for 2026, for example, the market already expected โฃsomething close to 1 billion dollars in cuts. And the most โrelevant cuts came โฃin the long term,” oneโ analystโ stated. “But the extraordinary โขdividend โdidn’t come and from all indications it won’t come.”
A key โคpoint of contention is Petrobras’ Brentโ oil price โขprojection of US$70 per barrel for most years of the cycle, considered optimistic by โJPMorgan and โขGenial Investments. Genial โadded thatโ the plan’s favorable exchange rate assumptionsโข alsoโฃ raise concerns about forecastโ accuracy.
Petrobras,โ however,โค offers transparency regarding potential risks, stating that a US$10 per barrelโ reduction in Brent would decrease annual operating cash flow by โขapproximately US$5 billion. this โขsensitivityโค analysis aims to provide investors with tools toโฃ assessโข potential downside scenarios.