Stocks Waver as Investors Await Inflation Data and Trade Deal Details

Stock futures experienced slight declines Tuesday night as investors keenly awaited the release of May’s consumer price index (CPI) and sought further clarification on the recently reached trade consensus between the United States and China. Futures tied to the S&P 500 were down 0.16%, while Nasdaq 100 futures edged down 0.17%. dow Jones Industrial average futures lost 55 points, or 0.14%.

The U.S.and China reached a consensus on trade after two days of discussions in London, according to an NBC report. U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick indicated that he and U.S.Trade Representative Jamieson Greer would return to Washington, D.C., to secure President Trump’s approval of the framework.Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent had previously announced his departure from the discussions to testify before Congress on Wednesday.

These trade discussions remain a central point of focus for investors, given the market’s sensitivity to shifts in trade policy. in May, both nations agreed to a temporary pause on imposing high tariffs on each other, but a comprehensive agreement is still pending.

In regular trading on Tuesday, the S&P 500 increased by approximately 0.6%, marking its third consecutive positive session. The broad market index is currently less than 2% below its february high. The Nasdaq Composite also rose by 0.6% on Tuesday, while the Dow climbed 0.3%.

Did You Know? The S&P 500, representing 500 of the largest publicly traded companies in the U.S., accounts for approximately 80% of the total U.S.equity market capitalization Investopedia.

Despite the stock market’s resurgence, Deutsche bank analysts suggest that tariff concerns and rising bond yields could cast a shadow over the market. According to a Tuesday note from the firm’s group chief economist, David Folkerts-Landau, the Trump management’s potential resumption of aggressive tariff rhetoric could trigger retaliatory measures from China and europe, similar to earlier this year.

Moreover, rising long-end bond yields are amplifying fiscal concerns globally, particularly given plans for expanded deficits across multiple major economies. Folkerts-Landau added that with several countries already facing unsustainable debt levels, the events of 2025 may have accelerated an unavoidable reckoning.

Inflation Data Looms

Investors are awaiting further insights into the U.S. economy with the Bureau of labor Statistics’ release of May’s CPI. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones anticipate a 0.2% month-over-month increase, with headline CPI expected to have grown 2.4% year-over-year. A higher-than-expected report could unsettle investors already wary of inflationary pressures.

“Ultimately this report is not expected to cause any notable changes to the Fed’s current wait and see approach when it comes to setting rates,” said Sam Millette, director of fixed income at Commonwealth Financial Network. “With that being said,we’ll have to wait and see if the report shows the anticipated modest rise in price pressure that’s expected or if there are any surprises in store for investors.”

Pro Tip: Monitoring the CPI is crucial for understanding inflation trends and their potential impact on investment strategies. Keep an eye on core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, for a clearer picture of underlying inflation Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Earnings Reports on Deck

on the earnings front Wednesday, traders will be closely monitoring reports from Chewy and Oracle.

Key Market Indicators

U.S.-China Trade Talks: What’s Next?

The recent trade discussions between the U.S. and China represent a critical step toward resolving ongoing trade tensions. The agreement to temporarily pause high tariffs in May provided some relief to markets,but a fully realized agreement remains elusive. The current framework requires president Trump’s approval, adding another layer of uncertainty.

How will the upcoming CPI data influence the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decisions? What are your predictions for the long-term impact of the U.S.-China trade agreement on global markets?

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