The Real European Security Challenge: Deterrence, Not Just Drones
Recent discussions surrounding European security have increasingly focused on the threat of drones, prompting consideration of defensive measures like a “drone wall.” However, this emphasis may be misplaced. The core issue facing Europe isn’t simply stopping drones, but establishing a credible deterrent against the aggressive actions of states like Russia.
The current dynamic presents a stark contrast: russia, engaged in conflict, is testing the resolve of European nations that largely operate under peacetime restrictions regarding the use of force. Building a purely defensive system, while potentially useful, is less effective against an adversary actively probing vulnerabilities and assessing political will. As demonstrated by Ukraine’s request for Tomahawk cruise missiles, a shift towards offensive capabilities is crucial. These missiles would allow Ukraine to target the “archer” - the source of attacks – rather than solely attempting to intercept the “arrows” – the drones and missiles themselves.
The effectiveness of any capability, though advanced, hinges on the enemy’s belief in its potential use. Russia would likely reconsider incursions into NATO airspace if it faced the certainty of a swift and decisive response. Similarly, the threat of retribution against facilities producing weapons like Shaheds could significantly alter Russia’s calculus.
Europe should prioritize rapidly recapitalizing its conventional forces, with investments in long-range strike capabilities. Several nations are already pursuing this path, recognizing that such investments not only enhance their offensive power but also strengthen the nuclear deterrence pillar.By demonstrably fulfilling their NATO Article 3 obligation to provide for their own defense,European nations reinforce the transatlantic alliance.
A focus on the willingness and ability to retaliate against Russia would diminish the perceived threat of cross-border attacks, including those involving drones. However, this doesn’t mean Europe should ignore the drone threat entirely. The more pressing concern lies in countering the use of drones by covert actors targeting critical infrastructure, as exemplified by Ukraine’s “Operation Spiderweb,” or by violent nonstate actors potentially employing drones for terrorist purposes – such as the use of “dragon drones” carrying thermite to incite panic and chaos.
Drones and Russia both pose challenges, but the fundamental problem is allowing attention to be diverted by these immediate concerns.NATO nations must maintain a strategic outlook, recognizing that a robust deterrent is the most effective safeguard against both Russian aggression and the broader spectrum of drone-related threats.