Mexican stock exchange

Mexico City. While awaiting the outcome of the debate on judicial reform in the Chamber of Deputies and amid fears about the economy, the Mexican peso is accelerating its fall against the dollar towards levels of 20 units per dollar.

At the opening of the American markets, the Mexican currency depreciated by 0.78 percent, trading at around 19.9535 pesos per dollar.

Investors will be watching this Tuesday as discussions begin in the Chamber of Deputies on the reform of the judiciary. However, Inegi confirmed this morning that aggregate demand, private consumption and fixed investment slowed down in the first half of 2024, as gross fixed capital formation fell one percent monthly in June, and advanced only 0.7 percent annually, while private consumption increased only 0.1 percent monthly, 2.5 percent annually. On the other hand, the unemployment rate rose to 2.9 percent in July.

Thus, the exchange rate in Mexico could break the psychological level of 20 pesos per dollar this session, which is estimated to remain volatile for the Mexican currency.

The dollar index, which measures the performance of the US currency against a basket of six international currencies, fell 0.01 percent to 101.614 units.

Following yesterday’s low volume due to the holiday in the United States, the Price and Quotation Index of the Mexican Stock Exchange (IPC) fell this morning by 1.60 percent, to 51,643 points. The drop in the price of shares of Grupo Carso (3.71 percent); Bimbo (3.70 percent); Gruma (2.85 percent) and Alsea (2.65 percent) kept the main Mexican stock index under pressure.

Oil on the decline

Meanwhile, Wall Street is back in business today, although the agenda for the week postpones the most tense moments to the coming days, especially Friday, when the official US employment report for August will be released.

The US employment figures could be key for the Federal Reserve (Fed). According to analysts, the central scenario for the Fed meeting on 18 September remains a cut of 0.25 percentage points. Analysts do not rule out, however, that the employment data, depending on its degree of strength, could significantly strengthen or reduce the chances of a half-percentage point interest rate cut.

The Nasdaq fell 1.65 percent, while the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones lost 1.20 and 1.05 percent, respectively.

Crude oil prices are once again approaching their annual lows. Brent crude oil is down more than 4 percent to $74.25 a barrel. Demand prospects from China remain subdued ahead of the expected increase in production by OPEC+. Meanwhile, WTI is down 3.77 percent to $70.78 a barrel.

As in the currency market, the lull in the fixed-income market has persisted since yesterday. Interest on debt has barely changed as it awaits further macroeconomic news. The required yield on 10-year US bonds remains at around 3.90 percent.

Mexico City. Amid stronger economic growth in the United States, which has strengthened the dollar, and greater risk aversion in Mexico, the Mexican peso is once again weaker against the US currency and is heading back toward 20 per dollar.

At the opening of the American markets, the Mexican currency has depreciated by 1.33 percent, trading at around 19.9012 units per dollar.

In a context in which the Bank of Mexico adjusted its growth outlook for Mexico downwards from 2.4 to 1.5 percent for 2024 and only a 1.2 percent advance for 2025, as well as the news that Morena and its allies have 72.8 percent of the seats in the Chamber of Deputies, which represents the qualified majority, so there would be no counterweights for the discussion of the constitutional reforms that are planned, such as those of the Judiciary.

The United States also published its second estimate of gross domestic product (GDP) for the second quarter. The world’s largest economy and Mexico’s main trading partner grew 3 percent between April and June, above the forecasts of experts, who expected GDP growth to remain at the 2.8 percent pace recorded in the first quarter of the year.

The dollar is thus strengthening, as according to the weighted index, DXY, which measures the performance of the US currency against a basket of six international currencies, it advances 0.37 percent to 101.365 units.

Investors are overcoming the hangover from Nvidia’s earnings and are now focusing their attention on the macroeconomic data to be released today and tomorrow.

The weekly number of applications for unemployment benefits in the United States fell by 2,000 to 231,000 in the week ending August 24. This figure is slightly above the 230,000 that experts had expected and the 232,000 of the previous week.

These economic references will be the prelude to the publication tomorrow in the United States of the personal consumption price index, the PCE, the price variable most closely followed by the Federal Reserve. Analysts believe that its performance may determine the amount of the rate cut that the Federal Reserve (Fed) is expected to undertake in mid-September.

Despite the fact that shares of chip company Nvidia fell more than 2 percent, Wall Street remained on the rise, thanks to gains in Apple, Amazon and Tesla. The Nasda index rose 0.93 percent, the S&P 500 rose 0.52 percent and the Dow Jones rose 0.46 percent.

For its part, the Mexican Stock Exchange (BMV) rose 0.46 percent to 52,679.16 units.

Meanwhile, oil prices are up 2 percent this morning. WTI, the U.S. benchmark, is up 2.89 percent to $76.67 per barrel, while Brent is up 2.28 percent to $79.36. Gold is flirting with highs again, gaining 0.62 percent to $2,553.55 per troy ounce.