U.S. Human Rights strategy Faces Reality Check in Case of Imprisoned Billionaire Lai
WASHINGTON – A growing chorus of skepticism is emerging regarding the effectiveness of U.S. human rights diplomacy toward China,particularly in light of the ongoing detention of Hong Kong billionaire Jimmy Lai. A recent analysis suggests that moral pressure and economic incentives are unlikely to secure Lai’s release, given Beijing’s firm stance on its claims over Taiwan and its prioritization of national interests in an era of heightened great-power competition.
The case of Lai, a pro-democracy media mogul, has drawn international attention and calls for his release. Though, experts argue that Beijing views Lai not as a political prisoner, but as a threat to national security – a “foreign asset acting against the interests of the Chinese state.” This framing allows China to justify his detention and resist external pressure.
Former U.S.officials, like Matthew Smith, have attempted to identify potential benefits for China in releasing Lai, questioning “What does Xi Jinping get out of this?” But assessments of Chinese motivations are often viewed as overly optimistic. Beijing is expected to continue denying wrongdoing and delaying any resolution to the case.
The analysis points to a essential disconnect between U.S. policy assumptions and the realities of China’s strategic calculus. While human rights remain a core tenet of American foreign policy, the article contends that, in practice, it is indeed a “least reliable tool for driving real change.”
The piece draws a parallel to the Cold War, citing Henry Kissinger’s approach to understanding the Soviet Union. It argues that a clear and realistic understanding of Beijing’s motivations – prioritizing ”hard facts of great-power competition” over ancient analogies – is crucial for effective U.S. policy. America’s past errors, the analysis concludes, have stemmed not from a lack of resolve, but from “gaps in understanding.”
The article suggests a conventional prisoner swap as a potentially more viable,though currently underexplored,avenue for securing Lai’s release. However, it ultimately casts doubt on the likelihood of any significant shift in Beijing’s position without a more nuanced and pragmatic approach from Washington.