U.S. Human Rights strategy Faces Reality Check in โคCase of Imprisoned Billionaire Lai
WASHINGTON – A growing chorus of skepticismโข is emerging regarding the effectiveness of U.S. human rights diplomacy toward China,particularly in light of the ongoing detention ofโข Hong โKong billionaire Jimmy Lai. A recent analysis suggests โคthat moral โpressure and economic incentives are โคunlikely to secure โขLai’sโฃ release, given Beijing’s firm stance on itsโค claims overโ Taiwan and its prioritization โof national interests in an era of heightened great-power competition.
The caseโ of Lai, a pro-democracy โคmedia mogul, โขhas drawn โฃinternational attention and calls for his release. Though, experts argue thatโ Beijing views Lai not as a political prisoner,โฃ butโ as a threat to national security – a “foreign asset โขacting against the interests of the โขChineseโ state.” This framing allows Chinaโ to justify his detention and resist external pressure.
Former U.S.officials, like Matthew Smith, have attempted to identify โคpotential benefits for China in releasing Lai, questioning “What does Xi Jinping get out of this?” But assessments of โChinese motivations are often viewed as โคoverly optimistic.โ Beijing is expected to continue denying wrongdoingโ and delaying any resolution to โthe case.
The analysis points to a essential disconnect between U.S. policy assumptions andโ the realities of China’s strategicโข calculus. While human rights remain a core tenet of American foreign policy, the articleโ contends that, โin practice, it is indeed โa “least reliable tool for driving real change.”
The piece draws a parallel to the Cold War, citing Henry Kissinger’s approach to understanding the Soviet Union. It argues โฃthatโ a clear and realistic understanding of Beijing’s motivations – prioritizing โ”hard facts of great-power competition” over ancient analogies – is โcrucialโ for effective U.S. โคpolicy. America’s past errors, โthe analysis concludes, have stemmed not from a lack of resolve, but from “gaps in understanding.” โ
The article suggests aโค conventional prisoner swap as a potentially more viable,though currently underexplored,avenue for โsecuring Lai’s release. However, it โultimately casts doubt โon the likelihood of any significant shift in Beijing’s position without a more nuanced โขand pragmatic approach from โขWashington.