Inegi

After two consecutive declines, private consumption in Mexico registered a monthly advance in June, supported by spending on national goods and services, and slowed its advance compared to June of last year, reported the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi).

This morning, Inegi published the Monthly Indicator of Private Consumption (IMCP), which assessed that spending by companies, families and individuals in Mexico showed a monthly increase of 0.1 percent in June, after two consecutive months of reporting declines. However, it failed to recover the decline of both previous readings.

According to Inegi, for April 2024, the IMPC stood at 111 points, practically at the same level as the previous two months, which represented an increase in private consumption in the domestic market of 2.5 percent compared to the sixth month of 2023, far from the annual rate of March of 5.8 percent with seasonally adjusted figures, to make the periods more comparable.

The IMPC data was slightly higher than what the Timely Indicator of Private Consumption (IOCP) calculated a few weeks ago, where it estimated that private consumption in Mexico maintained its monthly contraction during June, pointing to a strong annual slowdown.

The IOCP forecast that the Monthly Indicator of Private Consumption (IMCP) fell 0.1 percent in June compared to May.

By component, in the sixth month of 2024 and with seasonally adjusted data to make the periods more comparable, consumption of goods and services of national origin increased by 0.3 percent monthly and consumption of goods of imported origin fell by 1.2 percent, its third consecutive month of decline.

At an annual rate and with seasonally adjusted series, private consumption increased 2.5 percent in June of this year. Within it, spending on imported goods increased 10.1 percent and on national goods and services increased 1.4 percent (goods increased 2 percent and services increased 0.8 percent).

Private consumption slowed down during the last two months of 2023, from an increase of 5.8 percent. Therefore, at the start of the second quarter of this year, it slowed down, in line with a more moderate performance of the Mexican economy.

Mexico City. Pessimistic expectations about the country’s economic situation in 12 months have dampened the confidence of Mexican consumers, according to data from the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI).

Mexican sentiment, measured by the Consumer Confidence Indicator (CCI), stood at 46.9 points in July, which represented a decrease of 0.4 points compared to the previous month. All of its components (the five) fell, but the one that reported the greatest decline was the one regarding expectations about the situation of the country in a year.

After Mexican consumer confidence stagnated in April and May, Inegi estimated that confidence regained in June, due to the increase in three of the five main components, and returned to February 2019 levels. However, by the seventh month of the year, their confidence in the situation at home and in the country deteriorated, which will hit their pockets.

The indicator for the country’s expected economic situation fell 0.7 points, the first decline after two consecutive increases; while the expected economic situation of household members in 12 months, compared to the current situation, fell 0.4 points. Meanwhile, the current economic situation of household members compared to what they were in 12 months ago fell 0.3 points compared to June.

The ability of household members to purchase durable goods has now fallen by 0.3 units, its third consecutive monthly decline.

The rise in inflation during the first seven months of the year, mainly due to agricultural and energy products and services such as restaurants, taco shops and tourism, has moderated consumer sentiment. Likewise, the Mexican economy began to slow its growth, which will affect job creation. The National Survey of Occupation and Employment (Enoe) alone revealed last week that more than 800,000 jobs (both formal and informal) were lost in July.

Thus, the data provided by the National Survey on Consumer Confidence of 2,336 urban households nationwide, prepared jointly by Inegi and the Bank of Mexico (BdeM), reflected that in the seventh month of the year, consumer confidence in Mexico remains at optimistic levels, but with caution, increasing 0.6 points compared to July 2023, as it shows a slowdown in its annual comparison.

The current ability of household members to purchase furniture, televisions, washing machines, other household appliances, etc., showed an annual decline of 0.4 units.

The current economic situation advanced 0.4 points in July compared to the same month in 2023 and was expected for household members (0.1 units). The country’s future situation is 1.4 points annually.