Asia’s Rivers Face Geopolitical Tensions Amid Climate Crisis
India, Bangladesh Water Ties Strained by Climate Change and China’s Dam Projects
Cross-border rivers connecting India and Bangladesh are becoming flashpoints for potential conflict as climate change exacerbates water scarcity. Experts warn that a lack of cooperative river management could undermine regional stability.
Fragile Cooperation Under Threat
Despite sharing 54 rivers, India and Bangladesh have formal agreements for only one: the Ganges. This deficit in comprehensive river governance, particularly in an era of heightened water stress, risks deepening distrust. According to one analyst, nationalistic politics in both countries actively hinder the establishment of sustained, equitable water-sharing accords.
“Without urgent institutional innovation, climate change threatens to turn shared rivers into sources of sustained geopolitical friction,” stated one observer. The current dynamic is characterized more by power imbalances than by genuine cooperation.
China’s Upstream Influence Grows
Geopolitical considerations significantly influence water-related actions in the region. China’s activities on the Brahmaputra River, which traverses China, India, and Bangladesh, cast a long shadow. Beijing has initiated construction of a massive hydroelectric dam near Nyingchi in Tibet, on the Yarlung Tsangpo, the river’s upper course.
This $167 billion project, expected to take a decade, has raised concerns in India regarding its potential impact. India has expressed apprehension about the dam’s consequences, prompting calls within the country to construct its own dam in Arunachal Pradesh. Such a move could further affect water flow for Bangladesh.
A Call for United Action
An expert, **Swai**, suggested that India and Bangladesh collaborate, ideally with Nepal and Bhutan, to forge a science-based governance framework for the Ganges-Brahmaputra basin. This unified approach, he argued, could present a stronger front against China’s extensive dam-building initiatives.
The Ganges basin supports nearly 700 million people. Effective cooperation is vital for water security and regional stability. #WaterDiplomacy #ClimateAction
— UN-Water (@UN_Water) June 29, 2023
Bangladesh’s Shifting Alliances
Recent developments indicate Bangladesh may be strategically strengthening ties with Beijing. In March, **Muhammad Yunus**, chief advisor to Bangladesh’s interim government, met with Chinese President **Xi Jinping**. The visit resulted in multiple agreements and memorandums of understanding across various sectors, including infrastructure development.
Bangladesh also secured substantial investment, loan, and grant commitments totaling $2.1 billion. These include funding for a dedicated Chinese Industrial Economic Zone and an agreement granting zero tariffs on Bangladeshi goods until 2028. India faces the challenge of navigating this deepening relationship, balancing geopolitical considerations with the concerns of its own internal riverine states amid changing hydrological patterns.
The Mekong River, which flows through China, Southeast Asia, and empties into Vietnam, provides a parallel case study of upstream damming impacting downstream nations, leading to significant environmental and economic consequences (International Rivers). This highlights the urgent need for transboundary water management agreements in Asia.