decline

Major U.S. stock indexes were mixed on Friday (15th) after Federal Reserve (Fed) officials said it was still too early to talk about an interest rate cut in March next year, which dampened recent market optimism.

before deadline,Dow Jones Industrial Averagefell nearly 60 points or nearly 0.2%,Nasdaq Composite Indexrose more than 40 points or nearly 0.3%,S&P 500 Indexfell nearly 0.1%,Philadelphia SemiconductorThe index rose more than 0.5%.

Major U.S. index futures were lower before the open on Friday after New York Fed President and Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Vice Chairman John Williams cooled optimism about a rate cut next March. Williams told US media CNBC that it is too early to consider a rate cut in March next year.

At the same time, the New York Fed’s December manufacturing index reported -14.50, far lower than the 2 expected by economists and far lower than the previous value of 9.10. The data revealed signs of slowing in U.S. economic activity. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield fell below 4% for the first time since August last year, and U.S. Treasury bond prices have remained steady since then.

The Fed sparked a speculative frenzy this week by confirming speculation that it was ready to declare victory over inflation and move toward cutting interest rates without inflicting major damage to the economy. A Bank of America report citing data from EPFR Global showed that U.S. stock funds enjoyed a ninth week of inflows, reaching $25.9 billion, the longest streak since December 2021.

As the week draws to a close, traders still have to contend with the year’s largest quarterly options and futures expiration on Friday and the potential for volatility. According to Tier1Alpha strategists, a staggering $3.1 trillion in open interest is either expiring or rolling over into the new year.

In other news, European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde warned that policymakers were not ready to follow the Fed’s policy shift, which dampened market excitement to a certain extent. Markets believe the central bank will start cutting interest rates in the first half of next year, which is ahead of expectations, a member of the ECB’s Governing Council said on Friday. Lagarde said yesterday that the bank had not discussed cutting interest rates at all.

“The contrast between a resilient U.S. economy taking a dovish stance and a faltering European economy sticking to a hawkish stance creates a contrast,” Swissquote senior analyst Ipek Ozkardeskaya wrote in a note to clients. It’s an unusual impression.”

As of 22:00 Taipei time on Thursday (15th): Focus stocks:

Intel (INTC-US) shares rose 2.43% to $46.28 per share in early trading

Intel announced a series of new artificial intelligence (AI) products on Thursday during the company’s AI Everywhere event, including fifth-generation Xeon processors for enterprises and Core Ultra chips for personal computers (PCs). In addition, the company also claims that the third-generation AI accelerator Gaudi 3 will perform better than Huida (NVDA-US)’s flagship AI chip H100.

Tesla (TSLA-US) shares fell 0.52% in early trading to $249.75 per share

According to reports, Tesla will receive 2.63 billion pesos ($153 million) in factory construction incentives from the Mexican state of Nuevo Leon to build its next large factory in the state. The move shows local officials trying to ease concerns about delays in Tesla’s factory construction.

Costco (COST-US) shares rose 3.61% to $653.52 per share in early trading

Costco recently announced a good financial report for the first quarter of fiscal year 2024, kicking off a strong start to the new year. The main reason is that the end of the year shopping season in the United States has begun, and consumers are enthusiastically purchasing discretionary goods, including gold bars, Thanksgiving Day, etc. Pumpkin pie is a hot seller.

Today’s key economic data:

• The New York Fed Manufacturing Index in the United States in December was -14.50, 2.0 expected, and the previous value was 9.10
• U.S. industrial production in November reported a monthly rate of 0.2%, expected to be 0.3%, and the previous value – 0.9%
• The US Markit manufacturing PMI index in December was at 48.2, expected 49.3, and the previous value was 49.4
• The US Markit services PMI index in December was at 51.3, expected 50.6, and the previous value was 50.8
• The US Markit composite PMI index in December was at 51.0, expected 50.5, and the previous value was 50.7

Wall Street analysis:

With the United States 10-Year Treasury Bond YieldFalling below the key 4% level, U.S. “Bond King” Gundlach warned that this is a warning that the U.S. economic outlook is not good.Gundlach said in an interview: “I think if 10-year U.S. Treasury yieldBelow 4%, that’s like a fire alarm for the economy… We’ve broken the trend line and from now on 10-year U.S. Treasury yieldJudging from the level, there is still a lot of room for downside. The U.S. economy is going to go down, and that’s going to have a ripple effect and we’re going to have to print a lot of money. “

U.S. stocks rallied after the Fed signaled that the threat of inflation is receding and the dot plot suggested three interest rate cuts next year.DowIt has hit record highs for two consecutive days. However, David Rosenberg, a big short seller on Wall Street and founder of Rosenberg Research, warned that investors may be celebrating too early.

2023-12-15 14:53:56
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