Increased Chinese โMilitary Activity in Regional Waters Drives Up Defense Spending Estimate
Taiwanese government analysis of Chinese โคmilitary ship and airโ activity suggests a critically important increase in spending on training and operations in โคthe Taiwan Strait, East and South China Seas, and theโข Western Pacific. The research, confirmed by four Taiwanese officials and reviewed by reuters, estimates China spent approximately $21 billionโ (152 billion yuan) on these activities in 2024 – a roughly 40% increase compared to 2023.The analysis, โฃconducted by the taiwanese army, leverages Taiwanese surveillance and intelligence data to track Chinese military movements. It calculates costs based on โfactors like fuel consumption, maintenance, repairs, and โpersonnel salaries associated with each hour of activity. โขThis estimated $21 billion represents 9% of China’s officially reported military budget of 1.67 trillion yuanโข for 2024, up fromโ 7% in โ2023.
Specifically, the report details a significant rise in โคboth air and naval operations. Chinese aircraft, including J-10 fighter โฃjets, โฃH-6 โขbombers,โค and drones, logged nearly โ12,000 flights โ- totaling approximately 37,000 flying hours – in the monitored regions, a 30% increase year-over-year. The Chinese navy conducted over 86,000 voyages, including those of aircraft carriers and destroyers, accumulating over 2 million hours atโฃ sea, a 20% increase from the previous year.Geographically,โค the analysis reveals that 34% of Chinese naval activity occurred in โthe disputed โขSouth China Sea, followed by 28% in the East China sea (adjacent to Japan โฃand South Korea), and 14% โin the sensitive taiwan Strait. One Taiwanese official described the increased activity as an attempt “to show the screening of military power andโ intimidation of the first islands” – a strategic area encompassing a chainโ of islands from Japan through โคTaiwan,โค the Philippines, and Borneo, effectively encircling China’s coastline.
While the Chinese navy also engages in operationsโฃ further from its shores, including anti-piracy patrols off Somalia, the United States has noted increased Chinese ship movements in theโฃ areas of the northern โLuzon Strait and the northern Pacific.
The Taiwanese government’s research aims to provide policymakers with a clearer understanding of how โChina allocates its โคmilitary โresources andโฃ toโค assess the rate of Beijing’s militaryโ growth. โข The โChinese Ministry of โคDefense โฃmaintains that itsโ spending is clear โand non-threatening, but diplomats suggest the officially reported figures may underestimate actual expenditures. Details ofโ howโค the budget is allocated remain undisclosed by China.