Increased Chinese Military Activity in Regional Waters Drives Up Defense Spending Estimate
Taiwanese government analysis of Chinese military ship and air activity suggests a critically important increase in spending on training and operations in the Taiwan Strait, East and South China Seas, and the Western Pacific. The research, confirmed by four Taiwanese officials and reviewed by reuters, estimates China spent approximately $21 billion (152 billion yuan) on these activities in 2024 – a roughly 40% increase compared to 2023.The analysis, conducted by the taiwanese army, leverages Taiwanese surveillance and intelligence data to track Chinese military movements. It calculates costs based on factors like fuel consumption, maintenance, repairs, and personnel salaries associated with each hour of activity. This estimated $21 billion represents 9% of China’s officially reported military budget of 1.67 trillion yuan for 2024, up from 7% in 2023.
Specifically, the report details a significant rise in both air and naval operations. Chinese aircraft, including J-10 fighter jets, H-6 bombers, and drones, logged nearly 12,000 flights - totaling approximately 37,000 flying hours – in the monitored regions, a 30% increase year-over-year. The Chinese navy conducted over 86,000 voyages, including those of aircraft carriers and destroyers, accumulating over 2 million hours at sea, a 20% increase from the previous year.Geographically, the analysis reveals that 34% of Chinese naval activity occurred in the disputed South China Sea, followed by 28% in the East China sea (adjacent to Japan and South Korea), and 14% in the sensitive taiwan Strait. One Taiwanese official described the increased activity as an attempt “to show the screening of military power and intimidation of the first islands” – a strategic area encompassing a chain of islands from Japan through Taiwan, the Philippines, and Borneo, effectively encircling China’s coastline.
While the Chinese navy also engages in operations further from its shores, including anti-piracy patrols off Somalia, the United States has noted increased Chinese ship movements in the areas of the northern Luzon Strait and the northern Pacific.
The Taiwanese government’s research aims to provide policymakers with a clearer understanding of how China allocates its military resources and to assess the rate of Beijing’s military growth. The Chinese Ministry of Defense maintains that its spending is clear and non-threatening, but diplomats suggest the officially reported figures may underestimate actual expenditures. Details of how the budget is allocated remain undisclosed by China.