Switzerland could overcome the recession

<figure class="article-teaser" data-fcms-lightbox-src="https://www.bote.ch/storage/image/6/6/0/1/1831066_fancybox-relaunch2022_1zfkck_g7K7X4.jpg" data-caption=" High savings rate: The Swiss economy will be strengthened by the purchasing power of the private sector in the coming months. Bild: keystone“>

High savings rate: The Swiss economy will be strengthened by the purchasing power of the private sector in the coming months.

Bild: keystone

Switzerland’s gross domestic product (GDP) will increase by 2.3 percent this year and by 1 percent next year, adjusted for major sporting events. This forecast was released Wednesday by ETH Zurich’s Economic Research Center (KOF). The Swiss economy can use it to avoid a recession, according to the statement: “Over the course of 2023, the economy will slowly gain traction and then normalize in 2024.”

In its June summer forecast, the KOF assumed that GDP would increase by 2.7% this year and 1.6% next year. The current forecast is based on a baseline scenario where energy rationing can be avoided. This hypothesis depends on supplies from other countries, savings and the use of gas storage.

When energy gets really scarce, recession comes

If this fails to stabilize the energy supply, two more negative scenarios developed by the KOF are likely. If, for example, Russia’s oil and gas supplies cease altogether, Switzerland will fall into recession in 2023.

In this case, according to the calculations of the KOF, GDP would fall by 0.4 percent. If there is also electricity rationing, for example because French nuclear power plants cannot increase their capacity as planned, there is a risk of a one percent decline in 2023.

The Swiss economy benefits from the savings rate and from immigration

In the most optimistic baseline scenario, the economy will be mainly supported by private consumption. Even though real incomes are under pressure, in Switzerland this is amortized by a consistently high savings rate, according to the statement. Furthermore, there is still high population growth. The situation in Switzerland is different from that in Germany, writes the KOF.

However, according to the KOF, the extremely positive development of the labor market is already slowing down again. “In view of the gloomy economic outlook, the increase in employment has stopped for two quarters”, reads the statement. For the next year, the KOF predicts an unemployment rate of 4.1%.

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