Sweden’s economy has weathered the corona pandemic better than almost all other European countries. But is that good news? The country may pay a high price for it.
By Elena Kuch, Steven Galling and Jan Lukas Strozyk, NDR
Sweden reacted differently to the corona virus from the beginning than most other European countries. When schools and kindergartens were closed in Germany, almost all educational institutions in Sweden remained open. Business also continued without major restrictions in shops and restaurants. Only major events with more than 50 participants were prohibited
Nevertheless, the economy collapsed: As the national statistics authority announced at the beginning of August, the gross domestic product (GDP) fell by 8.6 percent between April and June compared to the previous quarter. And yet the country is doing better than Germany. According to the Federal Statistical Office, GDP fell by around ten percent in the second quarter of this year. Across Europe, the value is almost twelve percent minus.
The man behind Sweden’s corona strategy is state epidemiologist Anders Tegnell. His concept: slow down the spread of the virus, but with as few restrictions as possible. “School closings and curfews are very harsh measures that are now being applied in many parts of the world. Of course, one has to ask whether this is the right thing to do,” said Tegnell.
Systematic approach with a different emphasis
Instead, he relied on the citizens’ own responsibility. Tegnell advised the Swedes to keep their distance and to observe hygiene rules. The country has not issued any mandatory rules, such as the wearing of masks.
Sweden’s path was by no means haphazard, explains Ilona Kickbusch, founder of the Global Health Center and advisor to the World Health Organization. “What we are doing now in the opening phase, Sweden has consistently done throughout,” she says in an interview with the Ed – for example in relation to schools.
This was a systematic procedure from the start – just with a different weighting than in Germany. The decisions have to be seen in context, says Kickbusch. Swedish society was “very orderly” and built on “a long tradition of a Swedish welfare state”, in which people reacted very differently to recommendations from the state.
Criticism of dealing with senior citizens
But in the spring, the virus spread quickly in Sweden. An estimated one in five Stockholmers was infected by the end of April. And if you look at the current numbers of Covid infections, it becomes clear what price the country has apparently paid for freedom.
According to official statistics, more than 85,000 people have been infected in Sweden so far, and almost 6,000 have died. With around ten million Swedes, that means around 8500 infected and 575 dead per one million inhabitants. For comparison: for every million Germans there are around 2750 infected and 110 deceased (as of August 21). In the summer, however, the number of cases in Sweden also fell significantly. But scientists fear that there could also be another increase there.
Senior citizens are particularly affected in Sweden. Around half of the almost 6000 people who died in Sweden by mid-August lived in old people’s homes. Critics complained early on that people had not been given sufficient attention. Anna Skarsjö is a trade unionist who works for employees in the elderly: “The biggest problem is that there is not enough protective equipment,” said Skarsjö dem Ed already in May. “And there are not enough staff to ensure that we keep the disease as limited as possible,” said Skarsjö at the time. The situation has now improved significantly, Skarsjö said in August.
The only winner is China
“A little of the economic damage was saved,” said Gabriel Felbermayr, President of the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, about the Swedish route. “It is a sociopolitical question, what did you sacrifice for it? What does one percent less recession cost at the end of the day?” Ultimately, voters would have to decide whether that was the right decision.
The economist does not want to draw a final conclusion anyway. The pandemic is not over for either Germany or Sweden. In the end, both countries will suffer economically. “The only winner is China. The only country that is not shrinking massively in this crisis,” says Felbermayr, referring to the world’s major economies. He does not expect China’s economy to grow as strongly as in previous years, more in the region of two percent. But “the rest is in a deep recession,” says Felbermayr.
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