It was a point of discussion at NATO for weeks: the accession of Sweden and Finland. All member states agreed, except Turkey. On the first day of the NATO summit in Madrid last week, there was finally white smoke† The three countries struck a deal that answered Turkey’s concerns.
–
–
For example, the arms embargo of Sweden and Finland against Turkey will be lifted, and there will be more cooperation in the fight against terrorism. Turkey wants Sweden and Finland to recognize the Kurdish separatist movement PKK as a terrorist organization. That is one of Turkey’s biggest enemies of the state.
Extradite suspects
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan demands that ‘terrorism suspects’ be extradited. Turkey asks for the extradition of 73 suspects identified by Ankara as terrorists. Previously, 33 suspects were discussed, so the number is increasing rapidly.
“There is no number in the agreed statement. It states that Sweden and Finland will cooperate with Turkey, for example on extraditions. But Finland and Sweden immediately emphasized: the Swedish and Finnish law remain leading,” says political reporter Fons Lambie. Turkey therefore does not have rock-solid guarantees.
–
–
That could be a reason for the Turkish parliament not to sign the treaty for accession of Sweden and Finland. “The first step towards joining NATO has been taken. Now it still has to be ratified by the member states, in other words, officially ratified. For example, via a vote in parliament. Turkey can start to slow down there.”
Attention to Turkish agenda
It is unlikely that Turkey will really block accession to NATO as a whole, according to Turkey expert Erik-Jan Zürcher. “Turkey sees an opportunity to put pressure on the West. In this way they can pay attention to the Turkish agenda, including the extradition of terrorist suspects.”
“As long as the treaty is not ratified, Erdogan has a means of pressure. It is likely that he wants to have more certainty that people will actually be extradited. He wants to increase the pressure as much as possible,” says Zürcher.
–
–
The situation makes you think to the refugee crisis† Even then, Erdogan had a great deal of pressure at his disposal, which enabled him to conclude a deal with the European Union. That made Turkey billions. “But Turkey has never really had such pressure against NATO. They will now milk it.”
It is difficult to predict how long it will take for the Turkish parliament to sign the treaty. “The Turks have already brought in a few things. That is also how it is presented in the Turkish media: ‘Turkey is an important player in NATO and other countries cannot ignore us’. That is already a win for Erdogan. “
Security guarantees
Theoretically, Turkey can therefore postpone the NATO membership of Finland and Sweden for a while. “But there are already enough countries that have promised safety guarantees to Finland and Sweden, including the Netherlands,” says Lambie. And there are European treaties they can rely on.”
Turkey is an important member of NATO that does not want to lose the alliance. “After the United States, they have the largest army,” says Zürcher. “And they are in an unstable area, between the Arab Middle East and the former Soviet Union countries. Without Turkey, NATO cannot really exert any influence there. Turkey knows that.”
–
–
