The survey on inflation expectations carried out by the Banque de France among business leaders shows a decline of 0.5 points to 2.5% in the median expectation of an increase in the index for the third quarter. consumer prices over the next 3 to 5 years. This anticipation thus returns to its level of the first quarter of 2022. It had stagnated for 5 quarters at 3%. In particular, the proportion of responses anticipating 2% inflation for this quarter has increased to almost 30% and is now the most frequent method in distribution.
In the shorter term, i.e. over a one-year horizon, the median expectation is stable at 4%.
That of instantaneous inflation perceived by business leaders is down by one point to 5%. That is, a level, underlines the Banque de France, moderately above the consumer price index (CPI) (4.9% in August) and more clearly below the harmonized index (HICP) (5 .7% in August).
The survey on inflation expectations, conducted for this edition from August 29 to September 5, is a module of the monthly economic survey (EMC), which relies on the usual contacts that the branches of the Bank of France establish with business leaders. Each quarter, approximately 1,700 companies of all sizes, regions and sectors are surveyed.
Evolution of inflation perception and expectations (medians in %) – Banque de France
2023-09-20 08:10:51
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