The mathematician Prof. Nikolay Vitanov gave brief information about the operational situation for the pandemic of May 18, 2022. This happened with the stipulation that “as always, first the pandemic, then the war.”
“Let me write again, probably for the hundredth time. Nobody makes you read this summary. It has a format, but the numbers are different every day. Who doesn’t like not reading or giving better predictions.
By grumbling about how ugly I am and by reviewing how I don’t understand anything, it won’t happen. Give better forecasts for the pandemic and the war. You are very good at words. You have no deeds. It’s been three years.
That is why the people read my summaries and do not pay attention to you. You’re good for nothing, my haters. And you can’t hate properly.
And now essentially.
Check the pandemic situation today
1. The Blue Summer script is stable – day 3. This scenario is – we have a quiet summer.
2. The general situation – Modified Omicron fails to ignite diffuse spread And so for 48 days.
Let’s see with numbers what the current situation is.
2. The basic reproductive number – today is 0.70.
It is below 1, so the scope of the infection continues to shrink.
“Blue Summer” is unshakable, the scope of the infection is shrinking rapidly.
3. The super fire check – No superfire. There is no.
Let’s see some control numbers for today from today’s diffuse distribution index
For the country – 0.10
Sofia-city – 0.19
Plovdiv – 0.10
Burgas – 0.09
Varna – 0.06
Along the southern borders
Blagoevgrad – 0.15
Kardzhali – 0.19
Smolyan – 0.19
Haskovo – 0.15
Yambol – 0.16
1. Critical value for ignition of diffuse propagation – 1.00
2. Over 1.00 – diffuse spread
3. Below 1.00 – diffuse spread stops or does not exist at all.
Today, as expected – no problems. The indices are far below 1, there is no diffuse distribution. The sinister professor’s plan to block the spread of the modified Omicron by stopping the diffuse spread is working. It’s been 48 days.
For information – the indices in several other areas
Veliko Tarnovo – 0.14
Vidin – 0.22
Vratsa – 0.14
Gabrovo – 0.17
Dobrich – 0.02
I drive in alphabetical order, in 5 areas every day. As you can see, there are no problems. Dobrich is even 50 times below the critical value. As sung in the song – the moon continues to sleep. Kovid – the crisis is over. Well, let there be at least one crushed crisis of all that has gotten on our heads.
3. Check overcrowding of hospitals. Are there overcrowded hospitals? There is no. Things are under control.
The health care system is spinning its chains and whistling about the Kovid crisis. The occupancy of the beds is tens of times below the maximum capacity. Dozens of times.
4. Check for total lockdown. A total lockdown?
There will be none. I wrote to you a long time ago – tighten the season at sea, summer will be calm. Here, we entered the “Blue Summer” scenario according to plan.
5. Mortality check. You know, the goal was to increase the number of days the dead would be single digits. The number will increase.
6. Conclusion from the inspection – Even today, 48 days after the end of the epidemic, the situation is calm. “Blue Summer” is a stable, health system
copes with the problems, the goal – to keep the summer calm, is being achieved more and more.
The diffuse spread is extinguished, the pathetic attempts of the modified Omicron to ignite it fail to one.
And they will still fail.
7. There are no changes in the maps. Yesterday I showed you the risk map. Today – the projected 14-day morbidity. Yellow appears on it, the range of this color will begin to expand slowly. The script
“Blue Summer” is stable. We keep it like this for 90 days and we whistle. This is the sinister plan of the sinister professor. And since Sherlock Holmes is gone, there is no one to ruin the sinister plan. He won’t be able to ruin the sinister plan with squawks and writing reviews from Gank’s Cafe. You have to get infected, you have to get infected. Only by doing such nonsense will you harm yourself and ruin the sinister plan.
Now for the war.
1. We have already agreed – the war will be long and slow. Why? As a consequence of the principle of enslavement of Hacken, a scenario of slow change of circumstances has stabilized. Therefore.
2. Verification of offensives and counter-offensives.
The Russian offensive. The main goal at the moment – Donbass, the criterion for success – the capture of Kramatorsk. The criterion is not met. No large boiler is expected, but small ones are expected. Boiler 1 – Severodonetsk – Lisichansk – almost closed.
Number of the Ukrainian group there – 1 division.
Heavy fighting is expected, especially for Lisichansk.
Surrender of the Azov Regiment in Mariupol. It is not an evacuation – it is a capitulation. They did not live up to my expectations. I figured they would fight to the death. They surrendered. Heavy psychological blow – if you want to be a hero, you do not fall into captivity.
Ukrainian counter-offensive. Goal – to stop the Russian offensive in Donbass. Criterion – capture of Raisins. The criterion is not met. There are no cutlets.
Western arms supplies have so far kept the Ukrainian army in an upright position. The losses are not small, however – from one-third to one-half battalion tactical group per day. The counter spins fast, which is not good. The blood, even if it is the sea, runs out at some point.
Conclusion – the Ukrainians did not manage to repel the Russian offensive in Donbass. The Russians have the advantage. It is expected that this advantage will be maintained until the end of the week and beyond.
3. The propaganda war. In the warring countries, the situation is stable – the peoples are still well caught in the grip of propaganda. This scenario is not expected to change until the end of the week, and beyond.
In our country, the scenario of failed pro-Ukrainian propaganda is stable. How to fix this – tips from THAT MAN (quote from THAT MAN, day four, not Bismarck)
..Faith moves the mountains, but only knowledge moves them to the right place ….
Short comment – you may have a lot of people ready to bite the propaganda hook. These are the mountains ready to go. However, if you are an amateur, you will not be able to move them to the right place.
And instead of pro-Ukrainian sentiments, you will run into an attractor with predominant anti-Ukrainian sentiments among the people.
This is not fixed with reviews from the cafe about how stupid Vitanov is. Vitanov saw the amateurism in time and pointed it out. Knowledge is needed here, knowledge of how to make pro-Ukrainian propaganda. Otherwise, the mountains will march in the opposite direction to the one in which you want to move them.
You see – I support pro-Ukrainian propagandists with intellectually proven working concepts. I hope they get married. Will they spin? We have a test – the attractor must be taken out of the pool of attracting anti-Ukrainian skepticism. If so, they are married. If not – they are not married.
And finally “Bismarck, of course.” Some are shaking with anger that I know Bismarck well. I know him, I have studied him for years. And so I write to you again: Bismarck is the hill from which you can look at this war and understand what it is.
Here is today’s quote from him
– Politics is not a science, although professors tend to consider it as such. It is an art.
What Bismarck tells us here is that politics is a science and more. He is right. In his time there was no game theory or dynamics of complex systems. And mathematical estimates in military affairs were not so developed. Today there is all this.
But even if you know it, it is not enough to be a good politician. It is the base. But if you don’t have the intellectual superstructure, you won’t become a good politician. We are watching the war and the base and superstructure of politicians. The reasoning here is short – if there was enough base and superstructure, there would be no war. We are looking at the base and superstructure of politicians in our country. Let’s not watch, huh.
So, we have to see what will happen.
I wish you health and success and let the virus surround you. And let the war surround you “, wrote Prof. Vitanov in his personal Facebook profile.