Study warns of colossal outbreak if China opens up – NRK Urix – Foreign news and documentaries

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The study was published by mathematicians at Peking University, one of China’s leading universities.

Using data from the United States, Great Britain, France and Israel, the mathematicians have analyzed what could have been the result if China had adopted the same strategy as these countries.

It writes the news agency Reuters.

“Estimates show a real possibility of a colossal outbreak, which would have put insurmountable strain on the health care system”, the report states.

Visitors to a restaurant in Beijing, November 27.

Photo: Ng Han Guan / AP

– A clear warning

China’s daily infections would have risen to at least 637,155 if China had adopted the US corona strategy, the study shows.

Based on the United Kingdom’s strategy, the daily number of infections would reach 275,793.

“Our findings give a clear warning that we are not yet ready to embrace ‘open’ strategies.”, it says in the report.

Mathematicians warn that the study is based only on basic arithmetic calculations. More sophisticated models are needed to better study the evolution of the pandemic, should the restrictions in China be lifted.

A volunteer holds up a sign about social distancing in Genting Snow Park, one of the arenas for the Winter Olympics in Beijing in February.

A volunteer holds up a sign about social distancing in Gentesting Snow Park, one of the arenas for the upcoming Winter Olympics in Beijing.

Photo: TINGSHU WANG / Reuters

Zero tolerance policy

China maintains a zero tolerance policy towards covid-19. The authorities focus on limiting local outbreaks.

The country’s strategy depends on repeated mandatory mass testing to identify positive cases every time an infection is discovered in a new area, writes South China Morning Post.

The Chinese borders have been closed to most countries since March last year.

On Saturday, China reported 23 new cases of infection, down from 25 the day before.


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