The Current Polls: A snapshot

Recent independent polls suggest a potential shift in Spain’s political landscape. These surveys indicate that Pedro Sánchez, the current prime minister, might face challenges in forming a government if general elections were held now. The socialist party (PSOE) is reportedly experiencing a decline in support, compounded by what some perceive as setbacks for Sumar, led by Yolanda Díaz.

In contrast, the People’s Party (PP), headed by Alberto Núñez Feijóo, appears to be gaining momentum. Polls suggest the PP could secure over 150 seats in parliament. Though, complacency could be a pitfall.

The 2023 Precedent: A Lesson in Strategy

The 2023 elections serve as a reminder that poll predictions aren’t always definitive. Despite initial forecasts, Pedro Sánchez managed to secure his position through what some describe as a feroz campaña (fierce campaign) that highlighted the peligros de una ultraderecha capitaneada por el PP (dangers of a far-right led by the PP). This strategy galvanized socialist supporters, framing the election as a battle to salvar a su partido (save their party) and salvar la democracia (save democracy).

the “Ace in the Hole”: Voting Strategies and Controversies

Looking ahead, the slogan used in the 2023 election might not have the same impact.Speculation is growing about potential strategies the PSOE might employ, especially concerning postal voting. Policies such as the Democratic Memory Law and changes to immigration laws are under scrutiny.

Concerns have been raised about the potential for these policies to influence voter demographics. One area of focus is the nationalization of descendants of those who fled Spain during the Franco regime. the claim is that las embajadas y consulados “socialistas” tienen instrucciones de Moncloa para nacionalizar a los herederos de los exiliados del franquismo (socialist embassies and consulates have instructions from moncloa to nationalize the heirs of those exiled during the Franco regime), perhaps swaying votes towards the left.

Additionally, changes to immigration laws could lead to a surge in naturalizations, with new citizens potentially supporting the PSOE out of gratitude. The concern is that con la ley de Extranjería, por otra parte, se multiplicarían y agilizarían las nacionalizaciones de inmigrantes, quienes, además, cobrarían subvenciones para poder vivir “dignamente” (with the immigration law, on the other hand, the naturalizations of immigrants would multiply and be expedited, who, in addition, would receive subsidies to live “dignifiedly”).

feijóo’s Challenge: Avoiding a Repeat of 2023

For Alberto Núñez Feijóo and the PP, the path to power requires vigilance. A narrow victory might not be enough, raising the specter of another Gobierno Frankenstein (Frankenstein government), a reference to a coalition government. Feijóo must be prepared for potential challenges, including what some describe as a posible pucherazo tan institucional como difícil de detectar (possible institutional fraud as arduous to detect).

The focus is on scrutinizing the aluvión de nacionalizaciones de supuestos familiares de exiliados republicanos y del ejército de inmigrantes que llegan a España en oleadas (deluge of naturalizations of alleged relatives of republican exiles and the army of immigrants arriving in waves). The extension of the legislative session is seen by some as a strategy to ganar tiempo, mientras alimenta la bolsa de votos socialistas con unas turbias maniobras difíciles de descubrir (gain time, while feeding the socialist vote bag with murky maneuvers difficult to discover).

Adding to the intrigue, a report in El País highlights un atasco en los consulados por la falta de medios colapsa la naturalización de descendientes de exiliados y emigrantes que prevé la Ley de Memoria Democrática (a bottleneck in the consulates due to lack of resources collapses the naturalization of descendants of exiles and emigrants provided for in the Democratic Memory Law). This situation is viewed by some as la pista definitiva de esas turbias maniobras que ha puesto en marcha el Gobierno para revertir el sentido de unas encuestas que dan por segura una victoria del PP (the definitive clue of those murky maneuvers that the government has launched to reverse the direction of polls that take a PP victory for granted).