Put in announced the mobilization on Wednesday: at least 300,000 reservists must be prepared for war in Ukraine. But according to some experts, far more Russians are being drafted, sometimes without any military experience.
reverse course
In Russian-occupied areas of Ukraine, Ukrainians are also said to be recruited to fight against Kiev. And also during Putin’s meeting today with President Lukashenko, an ally of him from Belarus, it could be the mobilization of military personnel there.
It is clear, Putin wants to try with more troops to reverse the course for Russia in Ukraine. Yet much is still unclear as to who exactly will go to the front and whether they can make a difference.
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In any case, the mobilization is not without clashes: for days Russian men have been trying headlong to get out of the country and protests have broken out in various parts of Russia. Russia now even wants to prevent the men called to mobilize from leaving the country.
“It looks like a disorganized gang,” said Patrick Bolder, a defense expert at the HCSS think tank. “Of course you hear mostly about the excesses. But there are so many of them that there must be a kernel of truth to it.”
Bolder sees above all that after that announcement from Moscow, a lot goes wrong with implementation in the Russian regions. “They mainly look at the numbers that need to be reached. But you see all kinds of people who are not reservists at all, like students, are also called.”
Arm Dagestan is the purveyor of the court
It appears that many of the soldiers and reservists are being drawn from the poorest areas of Russia, from the north of the Caucasus and from eastern Russia, far from Moscow.
The penniless Dagestan is, according to the BBC former court supplier of the largest number of Russian soldiers killed in Ukraine. This is ten times the number of soldiers killed by Moscow, where the population is even five times greater.
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If Putin can mobilize 300,000 men, that’s a huge number. So far, Russia has deployed just under 200,000 troops in the war in Ukraine. Incidentally, not all members of the new generation will fight at the front; part will be used for support and logistics activities.
Little or no experience
The Russians who are now being summoned have yet to be prepared for battle. Some reservists have little or very old military experience. In theory, the preparation should take weeks or even months, but the question is whether they will have that time. There are also doubts about the quality of the weapons and equipment with which they have to fight against Ukraine.
Although Russia has declared partial mobilization on paper, Ukraine is already in full mobilization. In theory, Ukraine has up to one million troops at its disposal. But in Russia that’s 25 times that, so in figures, Ukraine won’t win the war.
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But the fact that Russia now lets so many reservists into office isn’t necessarily a boon to Moscow, according to defense expert Bolder. “Such a crowd is also a great burden: they must be fed, clothed and trained. They can get in the way of regular soldiers. If they are also ill-prepared and poorly motivated, they are particularly annoying.”
If Russia sends even more ill-prepared soldiers to the front than those already called, you’ll see scenes comparable to World War I, according to Bolder. “There, hordes of soldiers have simply been sent to the battlefield. This is obviously completely disastrous for the motivation.”
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President Putin’s mobilization order came shortly after Ukraine launched a successful offensive in the northeast. According to Bolder, that offensive is still ongoing constantly, even if the gains in the territory are not huge.
marshy ground
According to Bolder, little is known about that state of affairs in the southeast, around Kherson, due to tactical considerations. In the north, attacking Ukraine has become more difficult as heavy vehicles are forced to stay on the roads more often due to the swampy terrain caused by bad weather.
According to Bolder, the partial mobilization of 100,000 reservists in Russia is not an immediate turning point for Ukraine, but there are concerns. “Ukraine can choose to guard the area it has now reconquered. But it can also take advantage of the moment when exhausted soldiers, who have been fighting for months, are relieved by the first reservists, to attack just then.”
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According to Bolder, Ukrainian President Zelensky will certainly try to use Russian mobilization to demand more weapons from the West.
“Very little is heard about whether they should or can mobilize more soldiers on their own. One thing is certain: they are motivated to fight.”
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