Politics Center/Reported by Lin Yunxuan
▲Shen Fuxiong asserted through polls that Hou Youyi will win in 2024; Professor Shi Zhengfeng of Donghua University has a different analysis. (Photo/Flipping Shen Fuxiong’s Facebook page)
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The outside world is concerned about the layout of the 2024 presidential election, and who will be the leader of each political party. At present, Vice President Lai Qingde of the Democratic Progressive Party is the most popular; According to a poll released by the Taiwan Public Opinion Foundation in January, Lai Qingde received 34% support, Hou Youyi received 31.4% support, and Ke Wenzhe received 22.3% support. In this regard, former legislator Shen Fuxiong mentioned on the 2nd that the current situation is not good for Lai Qingde, Hou Youyi ranked first in the polls, he will win, and Ke Wenzhe will definitely choose 2024. However, Shi Zhengfeng, a professor at Donghua University, has a different view.
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Shen Fuxiong said in the radio program “POP Hit the News” on the 2nd that it is currently “unfavorable” for Lai Qingde, and he believes that the current various polls should not be based on the odds, but on various credible polling units and sampling. time plate. For example, Shen Fuxiong said that if the popularity of the People’s Party is currently rising, but the attributes of the People’s Party are blue, and the blue sectors still exceed the green sectors, “this has not happened in the phenomenon for many years.” Shen Fuxiong asserted that if Hou Youyi ranked second and Ke Wenzhe ranked third, then the second and third attributes are the same, and Ke Wenzhe will be abandoned in the end; Shen Fuxiong went on to say that if Hou Youyi ranked first in the polls, “There is no need to discuss He will definitely win, and Ke Wenzhe will definitely run in 2024.”
▲ Shi Zhengfeng believes that there are still more than a year before the presidential election. (Synthetic image/provided by Hou Youyi, reprinted from Lai Qingde, Ke Wenzhe Facebook)
Shi Zhengfeng responded to Shen Fuxiong’s statement in “Zheng Yizhen Hot Evening News” yesterday (5). He believes that using public opinion polls as a primary election, the person finally selected may not necessarily have the best chance of winning. Shi Zhengfeng said that what Shen Fuxiong said was “if you vote tomorrow”, but there is still a year before the 2024 Presidential University “There are still many variables”. At the beginning, Hillary won more than Hillary, and even James Soong took a big lead in the 2000 presidential election.
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Shi Zhengfeng said that there is no democratic country in the world that uses public opinion polls as the primary election, which may imply the issue of head members. He believes that the only way to solve the problem is to hold a public primary election like the United States. If it is regarded as part of the national election, there will be no problem of vote filling, or someone will deliberately let “meat feet” appear in the polls, leading to the election. People are not necessarily the one with the best odds.