Breaking: severe thunderstorm potential is escalating across the Midwest this weekend, with a risk of large hail – potentially up to two inches in diameter – and localized flash flooding. The National Weather Service has issued several watches and warnings as a dynamic weather system moves through the region.
A broad area of the Midwest is bracing for impactful thunderstorms through Saturday, August 10, 2024. While widespread severe weather isn’t guaranteed, conditions are favorable for strong storms capable of producing damaging hail, strong winds, and heavy rainfall.
The initial focus of the severe weather threat is across portions of Iowa, Minnesota, and South Dakota. Storms developing in thes areas could quickly intensify, posing a risk of hail larger than 1 inch in diameter, as well as wind gusts exceeding 60 mph. The Storm prediction Center (SPC) has highlighted a Level 3 of 5 risk (Moderate) for severe thunderstorms across these states.
Over the weekend, the storm chances are expected to expand eastward into cities including Minneapolis, minnesota; Chicago, Illinois; and Green Bay, Wisconsin. The intensity and coverage of these storms will be heavily influenced by the amount of instability in the atmosphere. instability refers to the atmosphere’s tendency to allow air parcels to rise, fueling thunderstorm development. Higher instability levels mean a greater chance of stronger, more severe storms.
While general thunderstorm activity is anticipated across much of the Midwest on saturday, the majority of the precipitation is currently forecast to remain below severe weather thresholds. However, even non-severe thunderstorms can be dangerous.
Heavy rainfall is a critically important concern, even with storms that don’t reach severe criteria. Localized flash flooding is possible, especially in areas with poor drainage or where the ground is already saturated.The risk of flash flooding is elevated in urban areas and along small streams and creeks. Additionally, lightning remains a leading cause of storm-related deaths, emphasizing the importance of seeking shelter indoors during thunderstorms.
Understanding Severe Weather Terms: A derecho is a widespread, long-lived wind storm associated with a band of rapidly moving thunderstorms. While not currently forecast, derechos are a potential hazard during periods of high atmospheric instability. Hail size is categorized as follows: pea-sized (less than 0.75 inches), marble-sized (0.75-1 inch), dime-sized (1-1.75 inches), quarter-sized (1.75-2.5 inches), golf ball-sized (1.75-2.75 inches),and baseball-sized (over 2.75 inches). Hail of two inches or greater is considered extremely dangerous and can cause significant property damage and injuries.
Safety Precautions: When a thunderstorm approaches, seek shelter inside a sturdy building.Avoid open fields, tall trees, and bodies of water. If driving,pull over to a safe location and wait for the storm to pass. Stay informed by monitoring weather updates from the National Weather Service and reliable news sources.
