Several specialists warn of the arrival of a second epidemic wave

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THE ESSENTIAL

  • Éric Caumes, head of the infectious diseases department at La Pitié-Salpêtrière (AP-HP), fears a second wave this summer.
  • The reason for the fears of specialists on the epidemic recovery lies in our laxity to respect barrier gestures.
  • Currently, a slight recovery has been observed, but this is not enough to speak of an epidemic recovery.

In a few days, we will celebrate the two months of release from confinement. Since then, behaviors have become increasingly lax. A certain relaxation which worries many specialists. The most pessimistic of them, Éric Caumes, head of the infectious diseases department at the Pitié-Salpêtrière (AP-HP), fears “a second wave this summer, he told Parisian. At La Pitié-Salpêtrière, my Covid unit is full, I had to open another one at the start of last week. Cases continue to happen. Three were hospitalized this weekend. So certainly, we see far fewer cases than during the epidemic but their number goes up a little. We never stopped seeing sick people.”

Elsewhere in the world, numerous reconfigurations

Different specialists agree that the key to avoiding an epidemic recovery lies in our behavior. The more careful we are, the less likely the epidemic will start again. “It is essentially our behavior that conditions the epidemic recovery: if we want to avoid this, each and everyone must continue to respect barrier measures, hygiene measures, physical distance and wearing a mask, especially in promiscuous situations and in an enclosed space”, Says Jérôme Salomon, the Director General of Health at Figaro.

The successive reconfigurations that affect many countries sound like alarm signals against a possible epidemic rebound. When asked if these reconfigurations are like a warning, Éric Caumes’ answer is concise: “Yes absolutely”. One of the indicators that is looked at closely concerns the countries of the southern hemisphere which are currently entering the winter phase, which can therefore give a trend on what we could experience in a few months. “We are witnessing throughout the southern hemisphere today very strong outbreaks of epidemics in temperate zones, whether in South Africa, Argentina or Chile, notes Antoine Flahault, epidemiologist and director of the Institute of Global Health at the University of Geneva, at Franceinfo. (…) Australia has a harder time fighting this winter assault. It will also be very interesting for Western European countries. We will be able to see how far, to what extent, in what way, with what method Australia, which has a standard of living fairly close to ours, will be able to resist this assault of winter.”

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No epidemic recovery

Faced with the risk of epidemic recovery, reconfiguration is an option that cannot be ruled out. The new Prime Minister, Jean Castex, affirmed at the microphone of Jean-Jacques Bourdin on RMC on July 8 that “reconfiguration plan is ready. ” Nevertheless, he added that it should not be total because “we would no longer support a total and absolute reconfiguration as we have experienced it.“He is rather talking about”targeted reconfinement”, Targeting only areas where the virus is said to be actively circulating. An observation shared by the epidemiologist Antoine Flahaut for whom the generalized confinement “must be a weapon of last resort.”

The latest epidemiological data from Public Health France, dated July 2, indicate a resumption of the epidemic “at low levels”. If the virus continues to circulate, there is “no signals for a resumption of the epidemic”, Continues the epidemiological point. In Guyana and Mayotte, SARS-CoV-2 continues to spread at a high level. Our Thin panel of general practitioners detects more than 20% of cases of suspected Covid than last week, and 10% of confirmations of Covid cases on second visit, which confirms the rebound of the pandemic “, explained Jean-Claude Labrune, CEO of the Cegedim group, exclusively for Why doctor. A recovery to watch to try to avoid a second wave.

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