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Scientists predicted the peak of the fourth wave of COVID-19 in Ukraine / GORDON

“Over the past 20 years, there has been a cyclical nature of severe acute respiratory syndrome, swine flu, Ebola and COVID-19 pandemics with a five to six year period,” the release noted.

Scientists predicted the development dynamics of the fourth wave of COVID-19 in Ukraine for 200 days. Now this the wave is at the stage of growth, it can be fast, but shorter than the previous ones.

“Its peak is expected at the level of 15-18 thousand cases of morbidity per day. The extinction of the fourth wave is expected at the end of 2021,” the authors of the study said.

The reasons for the increase in the incidence, they called a significant weakening of quarantine in the summer. Scientists recalled the likelihood of a seasonal increase in other respiratory infections, the intensity of which has been constrained by quarantine restrictions for the past year and a half.

Context:

An outbreak of coronavirus infection began at the end of 2019 in China. 11 March 2020 World Health Organization declared the spread of coronavirus a pandemic.

In Ukraine the epidemic situation is gradually deteriorating, said on August 4, Deputy Minister of Health – Chief Sanitary Doctor of Ukraine Igor Kuzin. LIn the summer and early autumn, less than 2 thousand cases were recorded daily in the country, since September 9, the figure exceeded 3 thousand on September 16 the number of new cases for the first time since May exceeded 6 thousand.

On September 22, 7,866 new cases of coronavirus infection were confirmed in Ukraine. COVID-19 indicators hit a new four-month high.

Due to the spread of the mutation a new wave is expected in autumn in Ukraine the incidence of coronavirus infection, Minister of Health Viktor Lyashko said on August 19. WITHthe largest increase in the number of cases of COVID-19, according to his forecasts, expected in winter.

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