Scenarios in a row: PSV and Vitesse must do this to continue in Europe

We can be brief about the perspective of Ajax, Feyenoord and AZ: the three clubs have already secured group victory and thus qualified for the eighth finals of the Champions and Conference League. Feyenoord and AZ may also skip the ‘intermediate round’, where the numbers two from the Conference League taking on the numbers three from the Europa League. The European fate of PSV and Vitesse will only be sealed on the last match day.

Which intermediate round will PSV be in?
Due to the victory over Sturm Graz, the Eindhoven team are now second in Group B of the Europa League. In two weeks PSV will visit pursuer Real Sociedad. For the team of trainer Roger Schmidt, two scenarios are possible in the Estadio Anoeta.

To avoid misunderstandings: PSV will not be a group winner in the Europa League. The number two in the Eredivisie can still equalize in points with leader AS Monaco, but the Monegasques have a better mutual result. PSV lost 1-2 to Monaco at home, while the return at the Stade Louis II ended in a goalless draw.

For PSV, second place is therefore the highest achievable in the Europa League. In order to achieve that, you should in any case not lose in the Basque Country. If PSV succeeds, it will enter the intermediate round of the Europa League. The club will then compete with one of the numbers three of the Champions League groups for a place in the eighth final.

If Schmidt’s team is defeated at Sociedad, the Europa League adventure is over. In that case, the people from Brabant finish third in the group, which means that they will be active in the Conference League intermediate round after the winter. PSV will then play against a number two from the group stage of the new European tournament. The winner of this diptych will advance to the eighth finals of the Conference League. One thing is therefore certain for PSV: it will overwinter in Europe and complete an intermediate round in the new year. The question now is whether that will happen in Europe or the Conference League.

Do or die voor Vitesse
Vitesse can still become second or third in the Conference League group G. The third place means elimination, while the number two qualifies for the intermediate round. Vitesse is fighting for that second place together with Tottenham Hotspur. The Arnhem team currently have as many points as the English superpower, but are still one place lower. This has to do with Tottenham’s better goal difference (+3 versus +1 from Vitesse): the number seven of the Premier League and Vitesse score equally on mutual results. Last season, Vitesse would have had an advantage after the 1-0 home win and the 3-2 defeat in London, but the away goals rule has been abolished since this season.

So the team of Thomas Letsch does not have complete control over the winter in the Conference League. If Tottenham beat Stade Rennais on the last day of play, Vitesse must do the same against NS Mura and score two goals more than the Londoners. So if Tottenham book a 2-0 victory, Vitesse must win 4-0 to continue. In this scenario, the team of Thomas Letsch and Tottenham equalize in goal difference. However, the number five in the Eredivisie has scored more away goals in all group matches, which means that Tottenham is then passed in the ranking.

It is of course also possible that Tottenham will drop points against Rennes. if The Spurs losing, a draw in the GelreDome will suffice for Vitesse. With a large Tottenham defeat, Vitesse is even placed for the next round with a small score. In the simplest scenario, Tottenham draws in its own stadium: Vitesse must then win to continue.

For Vitesse, the scenarios are therefore a lot more complicated than for PSV. Letsch will probably make the assignment simple for his team against Mura: win big and score as much as possible. Then Vitesse has a good chance of becoming the fifth Dutch club to winter in Europe.

(Nordin ‘t Hart/VoetbalPrimeur)