Eismeister Zaugg
SC Bern stumbles and stumbles towards the playoffs and a record
Thanks to the 3-2 win against the SCL Tigers, the SCB now has a formidable starting position. If the master misses the playoffs anyway, it is the most disgraceful failure since the resurgence in 1986. Far more disgraceful than the SCB as the first defending champion in 2014 had missed the playoffs. At that time, 70 points were not enough.
Whoever wins like the SCB against Langnau has the hockey gods on his side. Chris DiDomenico missed the connection goal to 2: 1 with a penalty and the compensation to 2: 2 is canceled by the referees thanks to a new rule interpretation. Since this season, the referees can also check whether a goal was preceded by a high stick or a hand pass. So offenses that do not result in a penalty but an interruption in the game. They are allowed to trace the creation of the goal as long as the attacking team was in the puck possession in the attack zone. In this case, Julian Schmutz brought the puck down with a stick that was too high in the turn that ended with the goal to 2: 2. A rare case. But one hundred percent correct in terms of control.
Julian Schmutz’s too high floor led to the cancellation of the gate. Image: KEYSTONE
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The hockey gods were with the master and with the new trainer Hans Kossmann. For the sake of good order it should be mentioned that the hockey gods were against the SCB every now and then this season. It is not the time of the polemic before the national team break and the final phase of the qualification. It will come early enough when the decisions have been made. Now is the time for a sober analysis to find your way in the most turbulent final phase since the launch of the playoffs (1985/86 season).
The central question is: who will manage the playoffs? Five teams (Lugano, Langnau, SCB, Ambri and Gottéron) are competing for the last two playoff spots. In order to be able to assess the chances, we first have to know how many points are needed. With a simple formula we can calculate a theoretical value.
In the best case, 68 points can be enough for the playoffs. How do we get this value? The SCL Tigers are on the 8th and last playoff rank with 57 points. This means that they have won 1.36 points per game so far. Extrapolated, they will be in 8th place after 50 games if they keep up with this point average – and if they can do that, then they will reach these 68 points. It’s that simple. However, constellations are possible that require 69 or more points. But in order to calculate all possible variants, larger computer capacities than at the first moon landing would be required. Especially since not all five teams have the same number of games outstanding.
The SCL Tigers are on the last rank of playoff. Image: KEYSTONE
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This season’s balance has never been greater since the launch of the playoffs. So the past scores don’t help us either. So far, the playoffs went the cheapest with 57 points (in spring 2011 Biel came in 9th place with 56 points, so at least 58 points were necessary). So far, the most points have been needed in 2019. The ZSC Lions reached rank 9 with 74 points, so it needed at least 75 points.
Our calculation that 68 points are enough is the easiest to be able to estimate the playoff chances to some extent.
We now have to find out how the five “stroke teams” can achieve these 68 points. Lausanne and Biel are still missing three points (they currently have 65), but will get these three points and will no longer be considered in our lineup. Let’s go through the five candidates in turn.
7. Lugano 61 points
7 games pending
Lugano are still missing seven points for the saving points. The Ticino people need two wins after 60 minutes from the seven remaining rounds and once they have to reach the extra time. That should actually be possible without major difficulties. Especially since SCB Lugano accidentally solved the goalkeeper problem with the transfer of Niklas Schlegel. And if the gods of hockey want it that way, it may even lead to all conspiracy theories: What if, for example, Lugano and Ambri needed two counters in the last game against Ambri? Or Lugano doesn’t need a point anymore, but Ambri slips into the playoffs with three points? Then the two teams could discuss the result. Oh, that would be a wonderful starting point.
Lugano’s remaining games:
Lugano – Ambri
Lausanne – Lugano
Lugano – Servette
Gottéron – Lugano
Lugano – SCB
Lakers – Lugano
Lugano – Ambri
8. SCL Tigers 57 points
8 games pending
Langnau are still 11 points missing from the theoretical playoff qualification. For example, four wins are necessary: three after 60 minutes and one after extra time or penalties. As the only team in the league, the Langnauer have not lost a single point against the Lakers this season. We can be polemical and say: if Langnau doesn’t beat the Lakers for the fourth time, it won’t be the playoffs. The restart after the national team break with the home game against the tail lights is already a game of fate. The forecast is risky: if the SCL Tigers don’t score three points in the first game after the break against the Lakers, they will contest the classification round. In terms of calculation, Langnau has the better starting position than the SCB. But the Emmental have less talent. In terms of hockey technology and finances, they are on thinner ice than the master.
The remaining games of the SCL Tigers:
Lakers – Langnau
Langnau – ZSC Lions
Servette – Langnau
Davos – Langnau
Langnau – Gottéron
Lausanne – Langnau
Zug – Langnau
Langnau – Biel
9. SCB 56 points
8 games pending
The master still lacks 12 points for theoretical playoff participation. The calculation is simple: four wins after 60 minutes. The SCB must therefore win at least half of the outstanding games (or the remaining home games). The management has gone through all the classic crisis scenarios: among other things, a new goalkeeper (Tomi Karhunen) is committed and the great master coach Kari Jalonen is fired and replaced by Hans Kossmann. The SCB can make history with a playoff qualification: never before has a team that finished second to last 9 laps before the end of the game make it into the playoffs. And if it is not enough, nobody can say that the SCB has bored us – there has not been so much entertainment in Bern.
The remaining games of the master:
SCB – ZSC Lions
SCB – ZugBiel – SCB
SCB – Lakers
Lugano – SCB
Davos – SCB
SCB – Gottéron
Lausanne – SCB
10. Ambri 55 points
7 games pending
Ambri needs 13 points from 7 games for the saving score (68). For example, four wins after 60 minutes and must achieve the extra time at least once. In other words: Ambri should not lose more than two of the outstanding games after 60 minutes. We have already mentioned that it may be possible to make a “parcel” with Lugano in the last game. Nevertheless, Ambri has the most difficult starting position of all five “streak teams”.
Ambris remaining games:
Lugano – Ambri
Davos – Ambri
Ambri – Lausanne
ZSC Lions – Ambri
Ambri Servette
Ambri – Davos
Lugano – Ambri
11. Gottéron 53 points
10 games pending
Gottéron needs 15 points for the theoretical playoff participation. So most of all candidates. But Gottéron also has the most games pending. Namely 10. With 5 wins after 60 minutes it could be enough. In other words, if Gottéron wins half of the remaining games, the playoff qualification should succeed. That is possible.
Nevertheless, after Ambri, Gottéron has the most difficult starting position:
Lausanne – Gottéron
Biel – Gottéron
Gottéron – Lakers
Zug – Gottéron
Lausanne – Gottéron
Gottéron – Lugano
Langnau – Gottéron
Gottéron – train
SCB – Gottéron
Gottéron – Servette
In the final phase of the qualification, the games become even more unpredictable. It would be logical that games against top teams are more difficult. But that’s not the case. The final phase is always the time of the «free points». That means: the teams already qualified for the playoffs train differently. They usually prepare for the playoffs through higher training loads and are not quite as fresh anymore. Surprising results are the rule rather than an exception in the last rounds.
The unpredictable game on a slippery surface is never as unpredictable as in the final phase of this qualification. But at least we can say who will be most annoyed in the event of failure. Namely the team that will miss the playoffs because of the points lost against the Lakers. There is Ambri with 8 lost points candidate number one. Gottéron, the SCB and Lugano each lost 4 points against the bottom. Only the Langnauer so far none. This “Lakers formula” is not a disrespect. I bowed to the Lakers’ progress as deeply as I can. But there must be a little bit of polemics.
A forecast is actually a lottery. Let’s dare anyway.
The logical variant: the SCL Tigers, Ambri, Gottéron and the Lakers miss the playoffs. Of the five teams, the 50-million-plus company SCB and Lugano, which is funded by billionaire Vicky Mantegazza, have the most money at their disposal. Money makes playoffs. Or?
The just variant: the SCB, Ambri, Gottéron and the Lakers miss the playoffs. Langnau made the least substance out of all five “dash teams” and made the maximum out of a minimum. Hard work should be rewarded. Or?
The most spectacular variant: the SCL Tigers, the SCB, Ambri and the Lakers miss the playoffs – then there would be two real Bern derbies and plenty of material for polemics. Or?
The romantic variant: the SCB, Lugano, Gottéron and the Lakers miss the playoffs. Money isn’t everything and the outsiders Ambri and Langnau like almost everyone after all. Or?
NLA jersey numbers that are no longer awarded
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