The Shifting Landscape of Voter support

San Antonio’s mayoral race is heating up as candidates vie for the open seat. A new poll conducted by the University of Texas at San Antonio’s (UTSA) Centre for public Opinion Research (CPOR) reveals that Gina Ortiz Jones has widened her lead, now commanding nearly 13% of voter support. This represents an increase from the 9.3% lead she held in a February survey. The CPOR polled 685 likely San Antonio voters between April 7-9, using the same questions and wording as their previous survey to ensure consistency.

However, the election remains far from decided. A substantial 45.2% of voters are still either undecided or unfamiliar with the candidates, leaving a significant portion of the electorate up for grabs. This high number of undecided voters underscores the fluidity of the race and the potential for significant shifts as the election draws nearer.

Candidate standings: A Crowded Field

The ballot features a crowded field of 27 candidates, but the latest polling data indicates a clear stratification in voter support. While Ortiz Jones leads the pack,only nine candidates are polling above 3%.The remaining 18 candidates each garner less than 1% of voter support, highlighting the challenges they face in gaining traction with the electorate.

Following Ortiz Jones, Councilman John Courage trails at 7%, while Beto Altamirano and Rolando Pablos are close behind, both exceeding 5% in the polls.Council members Manny pelaez, Melissa cabello Havrda, and Adriana Rocha Garcia, along with Clayton Perry and Tim Westley, each hold between 3% and 5% support.

Notably, Ortiz Jones, Pablos, Altamirano, and Westley have experienced the most significant growth in support since the February poll, suggesting that their campaigns are gaining momentum.

Expert Analysis: A Race in Flux

Bryan Gervais, CPOR director, emphasized the dynamic nature of the race, stating:

This mayor’s race is very fluid given the number of voters who are unsure.A lot could change as the campaigns ramp up during early voting and voters make up their minds.
Bryan Gervais, CPOR Director

Gervais further noted that if current trends persist, Ortiz Jones appears well-positioned to advance to a runoff election. He added:

However, if voters keep breaking the way that they have, it appears that Jones is in a pretty solid position to advance to a run-off election.
Bryan Gervais, CPOR Director

If no candidate secures more than 50% of the vote in the May 3 election, the top two finishers will proceed to a runoff election scheduled for June 7.

Shifting Sentiments on key City projects

The CPOR poll also gauged voter sentiment on significant city projects, revealing a decline in support for the proposed downtown sports and entertainment district, known as Project Marvel. Opposition to the city and county’s redevelopment plans for a portion of hemisfair into this district has risen to 44%, a notable increase from 36% in February. Conversely, support has decreased from 41% to 34% over the same period.

Similarly, support for a Bexar County venue tax to finance a new Spurs arena and a new San Antonio Missions arena has also diminished since February. Opposition to the new San Antonio Missions arena now stands at 34%, marking the first time in CPOR’s polling that support for the stadium plan has fallen below 40%.

Despite these shifts in public opinion, the city recently approved the next phase of the downtown ballpark project and signed a memorandum of understanding for Project Marvel, indicating continued commitment from city leadership.