According to the publication, in the last few days Russian troops have sent a piece to the western edge of the arc of Ukraine, capturing at least three towns. Meanwhile, Ukraine still holds about 500 square kilometers of Russian territory, up from about 700 in the first weeks of the invasion, according to the Black Bird Group.
As the NYT recalls, the attack had two main goals: to force the Kremlin to divert troops from other sectors of the front to respond to the attack, thus reducing the pressure on the Ukrainian forces ; and land grabs that Moscow will try to get back, which could force it to the negotiating table.
The first goal has not yet been achieved, as the Kremlin is largely transferring resources from Russia and continuing progress in Donbas, but with the second goal, not everything is so simple, the release says:
“Ukrainian officials are pursuing the second goal as part of their ‘influence plan’ to push Russia into peace talks…
According to Black Bird Group analyst Emil Castehelmi, Russian counter-influences are steadily reducing the political importance of the Ukrainian-controlled area of Kursk, and if the current trend continues, it may be necessary the Ukrainians to reconsider their presence in the region and the future of the whole country. work.
It is not clear whether Ukraine will be able to keep the Russian territory it controls. Earlier, commentators suggested that Ukraine would be able to hold its position for at least several months as the Russian Federation suffers from logistical problems and disorganization. However, these predictions were made before the latest Russian countermeasures.
“Ukraine may hope to use the territory ofKursk Oblast as a bargaining chip in peace talks to trade it forland that Russia seized in Ukraine in Ukraine, but so far Moscow has no desire any to engage in negotiations while he has the upper hand on the battlefield. ,” the NYT summarizes.
2024-10-14 18:34:00
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