Ukraine faces its gravest challenge as the onset of the full-scale Russian invasion in February 2022. A confluence of factors, including wavering U.S. support and intensified Russian offensives, has placed Kyiv in an increasingly vulnerable position.

The situation is further intricate by what some perceive as a retreat by the U.S. from its commitment to Ukraine.This shift includes the U.S. allegedly reneging on a multiyear strategic agreement and, according to some analysts, pressuring Ukraine to negotiate peace from a weakened stance while together demanding repayment of $135.7 billion in aid.

The Looming Threat of Abandonment

Phillips O’Brien, head of the School of International Relations at St Andrews University, warns of potentially dire consequences. He suggests the U.S. could potentially lift sanctions against Russia and withdraw from NATO, leaving Europe exposed.

If the US actually moves to fully backing Russia and provides Russia with a importent amount of intelligence and support,that will be really a problem for Ukraine and Europe.
Phillips O’Brien, Head of the School of International Relations at St Andrews University

However, O’Brien believes Europe possesses the capacity to sustain Ukraine’s defense, provided it demonstrates the necessary resolve.

Europe’s Potential Role: A Lifeline for Ukraine?

Despite the bleak outlook, O’Brien emphasizes Europe’s potential to significantly influence the war’s outcome, primarily for its own security. He posits that Europe, along with nations like Japan and Australia, can keep Ukraine in the fight, even if the U.S. disengages.

Europe has the resources to keep Ukraine going. It would require mobilisation, effort, a significant amount of commitment on Europe’s part. So far,they’ve not,I think,shown the united will to do that,but they certainly could do it if they wanted to. They have the money. They have the technological know-how. They even have the military equipment to make a significant difference.
Phillips O’Brien, Head of the School of International Relations at St Andrews University

O’Brien highlights Ukraine’s burgeoning defense industry and suggests Europe could amplify these efforts, particularly in areas like UAV production. He also points out that the Russian military, while formidable, is not invincible.

Ukraine’s already developing a lot of it,so what [Europeans] could do is help supercharge what the Ukrainians are doing in,say,UAV [unmanned aerial vehicle] production. The russian military is not this unstoppable machine.I think we have to realize it is still a deeply flawed institution.
Phillips O’brien, Head of the school of International Relations at St Andrews University

Furthermore, O’Brien suggests that Europe could empower Ukraine to target Russian military assets within Russia, a strategy the U.S. has reportedly discouraged.

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s aspiring goal to produce 30,000 long-range drones and 3,000 cruise missiles this year underscores Ukraine’s commitment to bolstering its defense capabilities.

Navigating the Risks: Confronting the US and Russia

A more assertive European stance carries inherent risks,particularly concerning potential repercussions from the U.S. and Russia.O’Brien notes that escalating trade tensions, such as the imposition of tariffs, could signal an economic war between the U.S. and Europe.

If these tariffs come into effect, it’s already going to be an economic war with Europe. One of the things it could fully do – I think in many ways it’s already done it de facto – is to say, ‘The US will have no role defending Europe under NATO Article 5’.
Phillips O’Brien, Head of the School of International Relations at St andrews University

The most alarming scenario, according to O’Brien, involves the U.S. revoking its nuclear guarantees, effectively leaving Europe vulnerable to Russian aggression.

I think the most dangerous thing for Europe in the immediate term is to end the nuclear guarantees, basically saying to Russia, ‘We’re not protecting Europe,’ wich means Europe’s nuclear guarantee goes completely down to a very small number of French and British submarines.
Phillips O’Brien, Head of the School of International Relations at St Andrews University

While Putin has previously issued nuclear threats, O’Brien suggests these were not taken as seriously due to the perceived protection of the U.S. nuclear shield.

Intelligence Deficiencies and the Path Forward

Europe faces a significant intelligence gap, having historically relied heavily on U.S. intelligence sharing and technological capabilities. Severing these ties would necessitate the rapid growth of independent European intelligence systems.

Basically, much of European intelligence has been integrated with the US, and they had been provided a lot of information from the US, and the US has technological capabilities that they don’t have.
Phillips O’Brien, Head of the School of International Relations at St Andrews University

Despite potential resistance within the U.S., particularly from Congress, the president’s authority as commander-in-chief could limit any pushback.

The Stakes for Europe: Security and Stability

O’Brien emphasizes that Ukraine’s fate is inextricably linked to European security, especially in the absence of U.S. involvement. A Russian victory in Ukraine would significantly enhance Russia’s power and pose a direct threat to the continent.

As with the US out of the game, Ukraine becomes incredibly critically important to the future of European security.
Phillips O’Brien, head of the School of International Relations at St Andrews University

If you take the US out, the state of Ukraine is absolutely, without a doubt, central to European security, because Ukraine is the difference, as Putin understands, between Russia being a threat to the continent or not.
Phillips O’Brien, Head of the School of International Relations at St Andrews University

O’Brien criticizes Europe’s failure to adequately prepare for the possibility of a shift in U.S. policy, calling it a failure of leadership of historic proportions.