Russian Banking System Faces Mounting Pressure Despite central Bank Assurances
MOSCOW – Warnings of a potential systemic collapse in Russia‘s banking sector are surfacing from prominent economic analysts, even as the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) dismisses concerns and points to robust financial reserves.The diverging assessments come amid growing signs of economic strain within the country, fueled by the ongoing conflict in Ukraine and increasing budgetary pressures.
The CBR has sharply rejected warnings from the Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Financial Stability (CMASF), asserting there is no imminent threat of a banking crisis. The bank cites a strong reserve position, stating that unpaid consumer loans, which have risen to 12.9 percent in the first ten months of the year, are covered to over 90 percent by existing reserves.Non-performing corporate loans remain below 5 percent and are almost fully covered by reserves and collateral.
However, other experts are echoing the CMASF’s concerns. Igor Dodonov at Finam shares the CBR’s relative calm,noting that banks have built up significant buffers,estimated at 8 trillion rubles above regulatory requirements.
Despite these buffers, the Russian economy is demonstrably under pressure. According to EFN, the funding of military forces is becoming unsustainable. Oleg Buklemisyev, head of research in Moscow, warns that the Russian economy’s resilience has weakened significantly.
The strain is notably visible at the regional level. More then half of Russia’s regions are already operating with a deficit, projecting a total shortfall of close to SEK 20 billion in 2025. Finance Minister Anton Siluanov has cautioned that regional budgets are expected to require an additional 300 billion rubles in the coming year.
