Russian Banking Sector Faces Potential Crisis by 2026, Warns Kremlin-Backed Think Tank
A report from the Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting (CMASF), a Kremlin-backed think tank, indicates Russia could experience a systemic banking crisis by the end of 2026 if current trends persist. The CMASF identifies two primary triggers for such a crisis: problem assets exceeding 10 percent of the banking system or a large-scale withdrawal of deposits.
According to the CMASF,averting this potential crisis would necessitate substantial intervention,possibly including the restructuring or nationalization of over 10 percent of banks,or the provision of financial support equivalent to more than 2 percent of Russia’s GDP. The think tank assesses the probability of this scenario occurring in 2026 as “average.”
A key concern highlighted in the report is the increasing volume of delinquent loans – those more than 90 days past due. Data from the Scoring Bureau shows these loans reached 2.3 trillion rubles (approximately 25.5 billion euros) as of October.
CMASF expert Renat akhmetov points to a deterioration in the quality of unsecured consumer loans issued at high interest rates in late 2023 and early 2024. He also flagged emerging risks associated with older mortgages originated during periods of high demand for subsidized programs.
Akhmetov further noted that the true extent of bad debt is partially obscured by loan restructurings, totaling approximately 2.4 trillion rubles (26.6 billion euros) between 2022 and 2025. This represents 6.2 percent of the retail loan portfolio as of October.
Risks are also present within the corporate sector, where one-fifth of loans to small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) had been restructured by the end of the third quarter of 2025. Akhmetov warns that declining financial conditions for some companies and reduced revenues in export-oriented sectors, due to weakening foreign demand, could lead to a surge in corporate loan defaults beginning in late 2026.
Despite these concerns, the Russian central bank dismisses the possibility of a banking crisis, citing high reserve coverage for delinquent consumer loans and a low percentage of non-performing loans in the business portfolio. The central bank also emphasizes its stringent regulatory framework as a preventative measure against risk accumulation.
Finam analyst Igor Dodonov acknowledges the potential for an increase in problem loans but believes a systemic crisis remains unlikely. He attributes this stability to the substantial reserves banks have accumulated in recent years and the central bank’s strict regulatory oversight.
