ROCHE – Company expects sales loss of CHF 5 billion after Corona

Analyse

The Swiss pharmaceutical giant Roche expects a low, single-digit percentage drop in sales in the 2023 financial year and, analogously, a decline in profits.

• Roche Holding AG – WKN: 851311 – ISSUE: CH0012032113 – Course: €325,200 (L&S)

The main reason: Despite solid sales in the pharmaceutical segment and a growing diagnostics business, CHF 5 billion headwinds come from declining sales for specialized products in the area of ​​​​COVIV-19. Total sales of Avastin, Herceptin and Rituxan are also expected to be CHF 1.6 billion lower.

Full pipeline ahead

Investors like to talk about transition years. This is probably also the case at Roche. The market expects significantly better sales and profits again from 2024, but in 2023 the aftermath of Corona will have to be dealt with. Roche counters new competition from biosimilars with a full product pipeline. Roche currently has 16 blockbusters on the market. The number should continue to rise.

Source: Roche investor presentation from February 2nd, 2023 – The pipeline is full to the brim.

In 2022 Roche reached the guidance. Sales developed stably with an increase of 2 percent. Core income increased 5 percent. The dividend will be increased for the 36th time in a row and is expected to amount to CHF 9.50. The core business developed comparatively strongly in the fourth quarter. Free cash flow was CHF 17.7 billion.

Analysts are currently expecting a 1.8 percent drop in sales for the 2023 financial year. Earnings per share should be CHF 20.25. That should therefore fit quite well into the company forecasts given today. In 2024, sales should then be able to grow organically by around 5 percent again and increase in the mid-single-digit range in the long term.

Conclusion: Roche’s figures and outlook should not knock anyone’s socks off today. It is widely expected that Roche has a difficult year ahead. With Roche, long-term investors are banking on a healthcare giant with a very broad base that is benefiting from demographic trends. However, traders are probably not particularly happy with the papers at the moment, which are likely to develop relatively slowly. Long-term investors can take advantage of the recent price declines to build an initial position.

The author holds shares in Roche