Will the number of infections decrease in the coming days? Have the measures been effective? These are exciting days, also for RIVM. Should the number unexpectedly rise next week, additional measures seem inevitable.
But according to RIVM, the effect of the measures is now clearly visible. The drop in the percentage of positive people in particular creates optimism. “Up to now we have seen the percentage increase, so that is an important turning point”, say head of infectious disease control at RIVM Jaap van Dissel and Jacco Wallinga, responsible for the calculation models.
The NOS spoke to them about the situation in Germany, about rapid tests and about celebrating Christmas and New Year’s Eve.
You said on Tuesday that it should be clear by the end of the week whether the leveling off will continue. Will this leveling off?
Van Dissel: “We see that everything is going in the right direction. We think that the number of positive tests in the test streets of the GGDs remains high, but there are also other things at play that make it difficult to indicate the number exactly. to the percentage of positive tests watch, and we see that in the last days a little less. And we see that hospital admissions have remained constant over a number of days and that IC admissions have increased less quickly than initially calculated. Actually, these are all indicators that indicate that the necessary is nevertheless happening. “
On Tuesday, the RIVM reported that the percentage of infections had risen again that week to almost 18 percent. But according to the RIVM, it has fallen for the first time in months in recent days, and is now below 13 percent. This could be because more people without corona got tested, but because so far the percentage has been increasing – even with more testing – they see the decrease as a good sign.
Van Dissel: “If you look at other countries, where the measures started even later, you see the numbers skyrocket. In any case, we see that the numbers in the test streets have been around the same number for a week. unfortunately plagued by the fact that we do not know exactly on which day they fall from all those numbers, because of ICT problems. That makes it a bit more complicated to interpret it with absolute certainty. “
For the weekend, the OMT looked at the figures again, but saw no reason to issue a new advice with measures.
You could also say: waiting another week also means a greater hospital burden if the decrease does not occur. Wouldn’t it be wiser to take extra measures to be on the safe side, and to scale them down again next week if it appears that the decline has started?
Van Dissel: “That is assuming that it is increasing. But we have all kinds of indicators that show that it has leveled off, and if it does not decrease, that it remains the same in terms of hospital admissions. In that respect, we can start the weekend reassured. to re-evaluate it Monday. “
According to the forecast, we will not fall below the signal values until January. What does that mean for the way in which Christmas and New Years can be celebrated?
Van Dissel: “We first want to see that it decreases, and if we see that for a while then we can answer these kinds of questions. That remains speculative now. Ultimately it all depends on how people pick it up and how people are willing to do it. That also affects how we are in the second half of December and what the numbers are then. “
In the House of Representatives, Jaap van Dissel said that we may be able to relax more quickly than after the first wave. In the Algemeen Dagblad, Jacco Wallinga said that we may have relaxed too much last summer. Doesn’t that contradict each other?
Wallinga: “What I have tried to say is that a lot of people changed their behavior in March, but I think that during the summer the idea arose: everything is possible again. People still have some of their old habits, to see their friends and family. It was not so much about relaxing measures, but about people’s behavior. “
Then it is placed with the citizen. You could also say: there are also measures that ensure that the number of contacts is reduced.
Van Dissel: “This is the point we just made. As long as the citizen does not feel the owner of the problem, we will start to see these problems.”
In Germany, the situation still seems a lot more favorable. They are now where we were in September. What are they doing better?
Wallinga: “It also depends on where you look in Germany. You also have to keep looking: where do they come from, what was the number of infections at the start. And if you look at how fast it is rising, it doesn’t differ very much between countries. Everywhere in Europe you see that it is difficult. Also in Germany. “
Van Dissel: “There will certainly be cultural influences. And I think the most remarkable thing is that most countries are taking measures that we had taken two weeks ago: closing the catering industry, keeping schools open and reducing contacts.”
In the meantime, the catering industry is closing in Germany. The question remains why it was only decided to close the catering industry in the Netherlands in October, when the number of infections was much higher than in Germany. But the scientists insist that the measures proposed by the OMT in September were not too light.
“The biggest difference between September and October is how it is implemented. As an urgent request by the government or more mandatory. From our point of view – what needs to be done to reduce transmission – there is little difference. It’s more how. you fly it. “
Suppose we fall below the signal values again in January. How should it proceed?
Van Dissel: “A lot depends on how quickly a decline sets in and then continues. I think we can in any case say that the easing that we allowed resulted in a significant increase. Partly that is imports from abroad. to the Netherlands, that may play a role. On the other hand, it is apparently the case that the basic contacts, which were possible on the basis of the measures, nevertheless gave the virus the chance to spread again. So you could imagine, but this is a first thought, that you are going to see whether your group sizes and the number of people who visit households are lower than in the summer. “
RIVM also has high expectations of the rapid tests. If there is too much time between the first complaints and the result of a test, people are more likely to infect others, Van Dissel argues. “In the current test lines, that is actually not yet sufficiently short to detect the virus. Rapid tests could play a role in this, because they can provide feedback much earlier and also handle larger numbers more easily.”
“And the willingness to do tests also depends on whether it can be done close to you, or whether you have to drive to a completely different city. And there is still too much of a barrier to do that easily. If that is partly removed with rapid tests, and several of them may be applied, that can be an important added value, “says Van Dissel.
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