When the first people in China died of the coronavirus in mid-January, it seemed far away from the Netherlands. According to the National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), the chance that the virus would enter the Netherlands seemed small. We are now dealing with a global crisis. Jaap van Dissel, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Control at RIVM, explains how things could go so wrong and what to do next.
At the end of January, RIVM reported that it was unlikely that the coronavirus would come to the Netherlands and that the disease did not appear to be easily transmitted from person to person. Almost two months later, we are in a crisis situation.
“Yes, it may be. At the beginning we were completely dependent on the information from China. The situation there also always tilted, that is the case. At the time, China also believed that the chance that it would spread internally there was very was small. “
“The WHO (World Health Organization, ed.) Provided assessments for scenarios most likely at the time: the risk of spreading seemed small. It is not the case that we held a completely different position in the Netherlands than other European countries, such as Germany and France. This was a position of the WHO. “
Does RIVM now have sufficient knowledge?
“We now certainly have more knowledge about the virus. But it is very important not only to hear that knowledge from elsewhere. Previously it was mainly from China and that always reflects the information in the Chinese setting.”
“It is ultimately about the details and they can vary from country to country. So it is also very important that you gain knowledge while such an outbreak is going on, to check whether there are certain circumstances that make it different here than in, for example, China, Italy, France or Singapore. “
Certainly after Prime Minister Rutte’s speech, there was also much to do about group immunity. How important is group immunity in fighting the virus?
“Protecting the vulnerable and being able to care for those who need them are our two goals. One side effect is that there is a build-up of immunity in those who have conquered the virus. It is said to be uncertain, but we know of any viral infection that builds up immunity. After all, otherwise someone cannot get rid of that infection. “
“The fact that people heal means that immunity is a reality. This has now also been confirmed in animal experiments. The question is, how long do people stay immune? Infection by a virus generally takes years.”
“The group that is immune will never grow so big in the current approach that we can abandon all measures. That simply takes too long. I think we have a vaccine earlier that helps us to give the other people that immunity as well. , but without having to go through the disease. But that will probably take some time. “
Suppose the measures that apply until 6 April are extended by three weeks, then we still have too little immunity to let go of all interventions?
“Certainly. Immunity already helps us with the interventions we do, it strengthens it. But the virus will stay with us for months to come.”
Do you think that measures apply to the elderly and vulnerable for much longer than to healthy, young people?
“It really depends on how long it takes us to get a vaccine, which probably will take more than a year. After all, a vaccine has to be produced, tested for safety and so on.”
“Sometimes you see that a summer period has a positive effect on respiratory infections. But they are all uncertainties. It is a new virus, we are all sensitive to it. We have to live with that at the moment.”
That is not a very hopeful story.
“Well, this is what happens, the reality. The last thing we need to do is stick our heads in the sand and say it doesn’t happen and do nothing else. We have to deal with this as a society together. We can contain the outbreak. “
These are not special weeks, but months and maybe even a year.
“I would keep it months now. For the longer term, there are more and more uncertainties. We are working on treatments, on a vaccine, so to cast the shadow a year ahead is really going too far. a lot is happening, but science is not standing still, new insights will come. “
In recent weeks you have regularly stood next to the Prime Minister to announce new measures. You were even mentioned separately in his speech. Do you feel a bit boss of the country at the moment?
“No, that is nonsense. As RIVM we are a coordinating organization and bring together expertise from medical specialists and scientists from all over the country (in the Outbreak Management Team, ed.). I am the director of the center that organizes this and that As a result, you are the mouthpiece of that entire group of medical specialists and scientists. “
Someone must also transfer the advice from the Outbreak Management Team (OMT) to The Hague. Then you may be on the front line for the moment, but I advise the OMT and the decisions are made by politicians. “
You need to put a lot of pressure on you. How do you keep that up?
“It is especially important that you sleep well in such a situation. And yes, I do.”
If you have to say what the Netherlands will look like in six months’ time, what is your answer?
“Of course I hope that we have managed to keep the situation under control. I also hope that by that time we will have broadly accessible treatment, so that we can treat those if necessary. In addition, I hope that we will soon have a vaccine, so that all the measures that we are taking now are no longer necessary. But it is still coffee grounds. “
Follow the latest developments around the virus in us live blog.
The coronavirus in short
- The coronavirus mainly spreads through sneezing and cough drops. The virus can be transmitted directly from person to person or (for a limited time) through surfaces such as door handles.
- An infected person infects two to three others on average. Precautions are necessary to contain this.
- The vast majority of patients have mild (flu-like) complaints.
- Nearly all deaths involve the elderly or other frail, such as heart, lung or diabetes patients. If everyone complies with the measures, this reduces their risks.
- Read here what precautions you should take.
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