MADRID, 10 Feb. (EUROPA PRESS) –
The winter outbreaks of COVID-19 have been largely driven by non-compliance with control measures, such as the use of masks and social distancing, according to a study published in the scientific journal ‘Nature Communications’ by researchers at the University of Princeton (United States). In their work, they showed that the climate and the immunity of the population play a minor role during the current pandemic phase of the virus.
These scientists ran simulations of a winter coronavirus outbreak in New York City to identify key factors that would allow the virus to spread. They found that relaxation of control measures in the summer months led to an outbreak in winter, regardless of climatic factors.
“Our results implied that the relaxation of the control measures (and probably the fatigue in the fulfillment of the control measures) would feed the shoots in winter”, explains the first author of the investigation, Rachel Baker.
The researchers found that even maintaining rigid control measures during the summer can lead to a winter outbreak if climatic factors provide a sufficient boost to viral transmission. “If summer controls keep coronavirus transmissibility at a level that barely mitigates an outbreak, then winter weather conditions can push it to the limit. However, having effective control measures in place last summer could have limited the winter outbreaks that we are experimenting, “says Baker.
Cases have increased in many places in the Northern Hemisphere since November. In Spain, the spikes in COVID-19 cases are believed to be related to the increase in travel and meetings around Christmas. At the same time, large outbreaks were observed in South Africa from November to January, which are the summer months of that country. “The higher incidence of COVID-19 in various settings really speaks to the limited role of climate at this stage,” argues Baker.
In May last year, the same authors published an article in the journal Science in which they suggested that local climatic variations were unlikely to affect the coronavirus pandemic. The article suggested that hopes that warmer summer conditions would slow the transmission of the new coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, in the Northern Hemisphere were unrealistic.
Another author, Gabriel Vecchi, claims that the virus is currently spreading too quickly and that people are too susceptible for weather to be a determining factor. “The influence of climate and meteorology on infection rates should become more apparent – and thus be a potentially useful source of information for disease prediction – as increased immunity pushes the disease into phases. endemic since the current epidemic stage, “he explains.
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