Putin Thinks Time is Playing for Him in War with Ukraine – Bloomberg

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As the Russian invasion of Ukraine turns into a grueling war of attrition, the main question that will decide the outcome of the battle is whose side time is on, writes Bloomberg. The outcome of the war will be determined by the unpredictable dynamics on the battlefield: Russian troops will try to capture the entire Donbas before Ukraine gets heavy artillery from the West.

On Tuesday, May 31, US President Joe Biden announced that he had decided to approve the delivery of multiple launch rocket systems to Ukraine with a range of 80 km, the most powerful artillery provided to the Ukrainian Armed Forces by the Western allies to date.

However, over time, economic and political factors may affect the outcome of the war: Ukraine may face the prospect of weakening international support, and Russia – with the collapse of the industry, Bloomberg notes.

What are the main problems of Ukraine and Russia

Ukraine, while still underarmed and economically devastated, is providing a steady stream of recruits to the army, according to military analysts. Therefore, the key risks for Ukraine lie in the durability of financial and military support from abroad.

Russia’s problems are the opposite: they are struggling to find people to man the troops and lack the imported components needed to produce guided missiles and other weapons lost at the front. Therefore, according to the publication, the advantage of the Russian Federation in firepower will weaken over time.

What is Putin looking forward to?

Russian President Vladimir Putin appears to be counting on international solidarity with Ukraine to break first as economies around the world are under pressure from inflation and food shortages exacerbated by the war, as well as a divergence of domestic political and security interests. emphasizes Bloomberg.

According to Tatyana Stanovaya, founder of the R.Politik analytical company, Putin is absolutely sure that he has plenty of time, because he sees that the West will soon face serious economic problems that will provoke popular discontent. However, the publication notes that such assumptions about the weakness of Kyiv and its allies proved disastrously wrong in February, when Putin launched an invasion, expecting little resistance. “He was wrong,” Biden said on this occasion. “If he expects us to break in the coming months, he is also wrong.”

Is the West ready to continue supporting Ukraine?

However, Bloomberg notesthat more Americans are saying the government’s priority should be limiting damage to the US economy, not punishing Russia.

France, Germany and Italy are calling for ceasefire talks that, if passed today, would leave up to 20% of Ukraine under Russian control. Hungary has done a lot to soften and delay the partial ban on Russian oil purchases. Turkey continues to block applications from Finland and Sweden to join NATO.

How the mood in Russian business has changed

That said, Russian officials seem confident they have time to achieve at least the minimum goals of the war unleashed by Putin: the annexation of the entire territory of the Luhansk and Donetsk regions.

According to the publication, the effect of US and European sanctions against Russia was more modest than expected. It is expected that in 2022 the rise in oil and natural gas prices will bring the Russian Federation an unprecedented income from energy exports in the amount of $285 billion, which will create a solid financial safety cushion.

Bloomberg sources say that initial discouragement in the Russian business community has been replaced by a belief that Russia will take over. A race has begun in the country to buy up cheap assets left behind by foreign investors leaving the market. For example, Renault SA transferred its $2.3 billion controlling stake in the automaker AvtoVAZ to Russian state-owned entities for a nominal sum. Holcim Ltd., a Swiss cement manufacturer, said it would sell three of its Russian plants.

However, the Russian economy is still going through difficult times. In April, GDP decreased by 3% compared to April 2021. The reason for this, the Ministry of Economy of the Russian Federation calls “unprecedented sanctions pressure” that hit logistics and consumer demand. The Russian Central Bank predicts that by the end of the year, GDP will decline by 10%, and inflation will reach 23%.

As a reminder, on June 1, Secretary of State Anthony Blinken spoke about new deliveries of weapons to Ukraine. The $700 million military aid package will include multiple launch rocket systems, which Kyiv has promised not to use for purposes in Russia.

The Russian Foreign Ministry said that the supply of American MLRS HIMARS to Ukraine could lead to a clash between Russia and the United States. Russian political scientists regarded the Foreign Ministry’s statement as a readiness to strike at US territory from submarines on duty in the ocean.

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