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According to the expert, such actions of the Russian “fuhrer” can lead to a split NATO.
Samus told about this on the air of the FREEDOM marathon.
The expert says that an attack on an Alliance member country and the seizure of its territory will become a pretext for NATO to implement the fifth article on collective defense. However, this is only possible with the support of all members of the Alliance.
The war in Ukraine showed that not all countries are ready to go into direct confrontation with Russia, which will lead to the blocking of the fifth article.
“Putin knows that there are countries, such as Germany or Hungary, perhaps France, that do not want a direct war with Russia. They understand that they are not ready for it,” the expert explained.
Samus said that since 2017, Russia and Belarus have been practicing the possible capture of the Suwalki corridor during exercises, changing Lithuania to a fictional country in the scenario.
“During these exercises, this Suwalki corridor was carried away for several hours. And, naturally, either Lithuania or only Poland can specifically react during these hours. As a NATO organization … It takes several days, if not weeks,” he noted.
According to the expert, the situation will become more complicated if Putin uses the “Crimean” scenario to capture part of Lithuania.
“There are no defensive lines there, there is no prepared defense, there are ordinary roads, ordinary settlements, there are actually no borders due to the fact that these are countries of the European Union, NATO countries. There are no problems between them. Therefore, Russia can take advantage of this. .. They enter this corridor and do not start shooting.As it was in Crimea: “We are polite people, we just want to ensure the passage of our trains and trucks, we do nothing,” Samus explained.
In this case, it will be difficult for NATO countries to prove the need to implement the fifth article, because there were no hostilities. This will result in the Alliance having to be the first to open fire to protect Lithuania.
Recall that Lithuania intends to place even more NATO troops against the backdrop of Russian threats.
In its turn, Russia again threatens Lithuania due to transit restrictions to Kaliningrad. So, the Russian Federation plans to disconnect Lithuania from the general power grid. The relevant draft will be considered in Parliament.
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