The mathematician Prof. Nikolai Vitanov gave brief information about the operational situation for the pandemic of May 28, 2022. He has traditionally commented on what is happening in Ukraine and the course of hostilities there.
According to him, the war continues in offensives and counter-offensives, but without success. Kovid’s scenario is developing according to the “Blue Summer” plan and we are already in day 12 of it.
Here is exactly what Vitanov says with specifics and figures:
“Today is Saturday, so in short. Tomorrow is a holiday.
Whoever thinks that this information I give is not useful or false, should not read. This is the objective state of affairs according to my methodology for analyzing complex social systems. If you don’t like it, don’t read it.
As always, first the pandemic, then the war.
We drive on assessment technology and forecasts, as we do every day.
Check the pandemic situation today
1. The “Blue Summer” scenario is stable – day 12. This scenario is – we have a quiet summer. Goal – to keep it stable for 3 months (90 days) so that there are no problems in the summer.
2. General situation – Modified Omicron fails to ignite diffuse spread And so for 58 days.
The Covid crisis has been crushed.
Let’s see with numbers what the current situation is.
3. The basic reproductive number – today is 0.88.
It is below 1, so the scope of the infection continues to shrink.
“Blue Summer” is unshakable, the scope of the infection continues to shrink.
3. Super fire check – no super fire.
Let’s look at some control numbers for today from the diffuse distribution index
For the country – 0.07
Sofia-city – 0.11
Plovdiv – 0.05
Burgas – 0.06
Varna – 0.03
Along the southern borders
Blagoevgrad – 0.07
Kardzhali – 0.06
Smolyan – 0.08
Haskovo – 0.03
Yambol – 0.04
1. Critical value for ignition of diffuse propagation – 1.00
2. Over 1.00 – diffuse spread
3. Below 1.00 – diffuse spread stops or does not exist at all.
Today, as expected – no problems. The indices are far below 1, there is no diffuse distribution. The plan to block the spread of the modified Omicron by stopping the diffuse spread is working. It’s been 58 days.
For information – the indices in several other areas
Razgrad – 0.03
Ruse – 0.02
Silistra – 0.05
Sliven – 0.07
Sofia region – 0.09
I drive in alphabetical order, in 5 areas every day.
As you can see, there are no problems. The indices are a dozen or more times below the critical value. We look at the sea –
it’s calm. The blue summer is coming. In Ruse, the index is even 50 times below the critical value. The Kovid crisis is over.
3. Check for overcrowding of hospitals. Are there overcrowded hospitals? There is no. Things are under control.
The occupancy of the beds is tens of times below the maximum capacity. And it continues to fall.
4. Check for total lockdown. Where is the total lockdown?
What was a total lockdown? Tighten the season at sea, summer will be calm. The Blue Summer scenario is stable.
5. Mortality check. You know, the goal was to increase the number of days the dead would be single digits. The number of these days is increasing and will continue to increase.
6. Conclusion from the inspection – and today, 58 days after the elimination of the emergency epidemic situation, the situation is calm. “Blue Summer” is a stable, health system
copes with the problems, the goal – to keep the summer calm, is being achieved more and more.
The diffuse spread is extinguished, the pathetic attempts of the modified Omicron to ignite it fail to one.
And they will still fail. The scope of the infection is shrinking. Forecast – this will continue. A calm June is coming.
7. Today – the risk map. You can see that the situation is calm. Sofia-city is slowly calming down, but there is still room to enter the lowest risk zone. And this will happen.
Now for the war. Today very briefly. You know that on the example of this war I am working out the technologies for analysis and control of social systems. As a side effect of this are the comments I provide you.
The current situation follows.
1. Daily inspection of offensives and counter-offensives.
The Russian offensive.
The main goal at the moment – Donbass, the criterion for success – the capture of Kramatorsk. The criterion is not met. No large boiler is expected, but small ones are expected. The Severodonetsk-Lisichansk boiler closed with the capture of Lyman. This was expected. Inside is a Ukrainian division – admittedly – the most combat-ready units of the Ukrainian army. The Ukrainians missed the Russian breakthrough at Popasnaya, and on top of that they lost Liman. This work is not good for this division.
Goal – to stop the Russian offensive in Donbass. Criterion – capture of Raisins. The criterion is not met. There are no cutlets. Success criterion for this counter-offensive against the Kharkiv region. It is clear – the expulsion of the Russian army from the territory of Ukraine on the territory of Russia. Right. Has this been achieved? No.
There are some villages that the Ukrainian army must conquer in order to record success for it. These are: Kazachaya Lopan, Tsupovka, Ternovaya and Staritsa.
No progress has been made in this counter-offensive. The goal – to stop the Donbas offensive of the Russian army has not been achieved. There is no large-scale counter-offensive, which shows that Western military aid is insufficient. The Russians have an advantage in Donbass.
The situation for the Ukrainian army around Sloviansk is deteriorating. Ukrainian troops west of the Liman-Sloviansk line may be surrounded and another cauldron formed if they fail to withdraw quickly to Kramatorsk.
There are no significant changes further south. The Ukrainians hold the front at Avdeevka and further south at Gulyaipole.
Therefore, the active part of the war was near Liman and Severodonetsk. Expectations of Lyman’s fall came true. We expect a fierce battle in the coming days for Severodonetsk.
Nothing is moving south. After the counter-offensive near Kharkiv stopped, it is likely that the Ukrainians are preparing a counter-offensive against Kherson to reduce the pressure in Donbass. However, in the absence of sufficient weapons, such a counter-offensive is not expected to be successful. The fields of South Ukraine will soon become the bloody fields of death.
Ukraine’s manpower losses are growing rapidly. I have already written – Western aid is insufficient to compensate for losses in equipment of the Ukrainian army. It is a living slaughterhouse to send territorial defense battalions armed only with automatic weapons and hand grenades against tanks, artillery and aircraft.
3. The propaganda war. Here – without changes. In the warring countries, the situation is stable – the peoples are still well caught in the grip of propaganda. This scenario is not expected to change.
In our country – what it was, it is stable is a scenario of failed pro-Ukrainian propaganda.
How to fix this – tips from THAT MAN (quote from THAT MAN, day 14, not Bismarck)
… The media system wants a seeming diversity that hides the real uniformity ….
Short comment – another aspect of the success of pro-Ukrainian propaganda in Bulgaria becomes clear: uniformity.
There was no variety, not even apparent. There was no effort to channel the propaganda. That is why the attractor of pro-Ukrainian propaganda is stuck in a fixed point of inefficiency.
And finally, a little of Bismarck.
Here is today’s quote from him
… Politics is the art of adapting to circumstances and benefiting from even what bothers you ….
Vitanov’s theorem: A good politician turns crises into opportunities. A bad politician turns opportunities into crises.
I will not comment now. I leave you to wonder who found what for good.
Okay, enough for today. We are yet to see what will happen. I wish you health and success and let the virus surround you. And let the war surround you “