If I manage to help a person stay healthy, I will be happy, says the mathematician from BAS
At the end of October I will comment on the facts
The number of active COVID cases is expected to grow rapidly, predicts Prof. Nikolay Vitanov, who gave brief information about the operational situation in Bulgaria regarding the COVID-19 pandemic on October 20, 2021 on his Facebook page.
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He writes:
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This information is for people who want to know what I expect to happen with the pandemic in the coming days. The information is as it comes from computers. Good or bad, this is coming out, this is what I am writing to you.
If there is one thing that reassures me in the current situation, it is that at least those who regularly read the current summaries are not surprised by the development of things and have most likely prepared for such a development. If I can help keep a person healthy, I will be happy. If one person manages to escape hospitalization or death, I will be even happier. That’s why I do it.
This is the current situation. As expected, we are entering the period of the October peak values of the secondary peak of the wave. I write it on purpose in this strange way. I miss some additional information. Whoever catches her catches her. Whoever doesn’t catch her, good health.
You see the risk map according to the plan of the Ministry of Health. There, the large problem area of Level 4 districts in Western Bulgaria is expected to merge with the problem area in Central Bulgaria. The new candidates for level 4 today are Blagoevgrad and Plovdiv. We know Blagoevgrad, and I wrote to you yesterday about Plovdiv that it is going to become a candidate.
And figuratively speaking, while I was writing it and Plovdiv became a candidate. In general, this will be the situation by the end of the week. It can also be seen from the prognostic map of the 14-day morbidity. As for the risk map – you already know what this map looked like at the peak of the front waves.
Everything was purple during the November wave, during the spring wave only Vidin remained in the red zone. Now everything is purple without Kardzhali and Shumen. They are still holding on, well done to them.
About mortality what to write to you. You know what my expectations were for October, you know what a howl it was when I allowed myself to write that I dare not write forecast numbers for October. I have not forgotten who shouted the loudest against me then. At the end of October I will comment on the facts. And I can comment on orgasms. And the numbers are:
About the mortality (died according to the official portal coronavirus.bg that some haters do not yet know what these numbers are) – no comment, just numbers for information:
died at the end of September 2021 – 20882
died to this day – 22612
died October 2020 (for the whole month) – 441
died for October 2021 – 1730 (for 19 days)
The death toll so far for October 2021 is 3.92 times more than the death toll for the whole of October 2020. Tomorrow we will transfer 4 times.
No comment. But no comment. Draw your own conclusions, whoever wants to make them. I only give numbers, I will make the comment at the end of the month, as I promised you.
Let me point out something – there is no politics here. Only numbers without comment. If you ask why I do it – I study the effect of the corrosive effect of anticoagulants and anti-wax theories on the population. A good indicator of this is mortality. I’m looking for an answer to the simple question – why this wool is not lubricated, since there are vaccines. Why? Answer – at the end of the month, as I promised you.
Today the basic reproductive number is 1,273.
It is too close to 1.3. If he transfers it, the pressure will no longer be smooth. People on the front line feel the increasing pressure. The number of active cases is expected to grow rapidly and quickly approach the next round number, starting with the number of happiness. Here, when I decide to tell you a number, I can tell you without saying numbers. This is called occupational deformity.
The spread of the infection in the country is predominantly diffuse. Today, 25 districts are so widespread.
Only in 3 districts the diffuse distribution is not there yet – Kardzhali, Shumen and, strange as it may seem to you – Burgas. But they will taste it there too and I wish it to be short and not intense (if I wish them, then I have reason to think that things will develop like this. The future is in perpetual motion, says the green man from Star Wars, but computers allow us to partially peek into it).
New measures are needed. In an interview two days ago, when I was asked which of the two options of Assoc. Prof. Kunchev would be accepted, I said that the more politically advantageous one would be accepted. When asked which of the two options is more politically advantageous – I replied – green certificates. I was not asked which was the more mathematically advantageous option. And when they didn’t ask me, I didn’t answer, so now you don’t know either. And no matter how much you guess – you do not know. This is the situation.
From my point of view, things look like this. In the current situation, it is most profitable to keep the biological basis of life and health. And if it is most profitable, I advise you to do it too – beware until the peak of the wave and the wave itself pass. It is different then to be alive and healthy and to live your life. Whatever you do, just know the benefits and beware.
This is for today. I wish you health and success and let the virus surround you.
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