Problem for Ukraine. Macron lost parliament

The first re-elected French president in 20 years lost his parliamentary majority. In opposition – right and left fans of Vladimir Putin.

The results of the second round of the French parliamentary elections are clear: the centrist camp of President Emmanuel Macron remains the leading force in the National Assembly, but no longer has an absolute majority in it.

Election results in are a risk for the country, said French Prime Minister Elisabeth Born. But this can become a problem not only for France, but also for Ukraine and the EU. tells the details.

Unprecedented results of elections to the French Parliament

Coalition of French President Emmanuel Macron Together! received 38.57 percent of the vote in the second round of the parliamentary elections after the completion of the processing of ballots. The coalition will receive 245 seats in the lower house, 289 mandates are needed for an absolute majority.

Leaders of the second round of parliamentary elections in France:

  • Together! – 38.57 percent or 245 seats (was 345)

  • Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s coalition of the left Nupes – 31.6 percent or 131 seats (was 60)

  • right-wing National Rally Marine Le Pen – 17.3 percent or 89 seats (there were eight)

  • Republicans – 6.98 percent or 61 seats (up from 100)

  • there will also be 22 deputies from different left forces, ten from different right forces and ten deputies from the regions

The results of the second round of legislative elections in France turned out to be worse than expected, both for the presidential coalition Together!, and for the anti-presidential Nupes, which was quickly formed by the left-wing populist Jean-Luc Melenchon, a Trotskyist, an ardent opponent of NATO and the EU, who came third in the presidential elections , as well as an admirer of Russian ruler Vladimir Putin, calling for a “civil revolution”.

French Prime Minister Elisabeth Born said that the ruling party will seek allies to create a majority in parliament. She believes that the election results are a risk for the country.

“Never in the history of the Fifth Republic has the National Assembly known such a configuration. This situation represents a risk for our country, given the challenges that we have to face both at the national and international levels. From tomorrow, we will begin to work on creating an active majority,” Bourne said in an address on June 20.

To do this, it is necessary to look for compromises and work on a dialogue with various political forces. Bourne promises that her government will continue to protect the purchasing power of the French from inflation and make protecting the environment a central concern of cabinet policy.

The French president will have to seek support from other parties to implement his sweeping reforms, such as raising the retirement age, cutting taxes and reforming the system of state benefits.

However, only conservatives from the Republican Party can be considered as coalition partners for the Centrists. Their leader, Christian Jacob, after an unsuccessful speech by the Republicans, said that they are “a party in opposition to Macron”, and that his entire party sees the situation that way.

Thus, either Jacob wants to sell his votes dearly, or he is afraid that the remaining representatives of the conservative camp may also dissolve into Macron’s political alliance.

Mélenchon considers the results of the vote devastating for the presidential movement and Macron’s policy: “First of all, this is a complete failure for the macronists. “.

Mélenchon, 70, has repeatedly said in recent weeks that Macron has plunged the country into chaos and a kind of social hell. While such passages brought Nupes a good result and a lot of votes from young voters who do not see great chances for career growth, they were not enough to win a parliamentary majority.

Despite their disunity, Nupes and the National Association will certainly seek to block any, even smaller legislative initiatives from the presidential majority, French analysts say. At the same time, Putin’s “changed shoes” fan Le Pen will be in opposition to both the initiatives of the presidential majority and the Nupes bills.

The president’s supporters are already predicting a complete paralysis of the legislature and that the National Assembly may be dissolved in about a year (and the president has such a right under the French constitution), after which new elections may be called.

However, observers say the most shocking result of the election was the number of those who ignored the vote: 54 percent of the French, mostly young people and representatives of the less well-off segments of the population, did not turn up at the ballot box in the second round.

What do they mean for France, Ukraine and all of Europe

The last time a Gaullist president, Jacques Chirac, lost his majority in the National Assembly was after the 1997 elections, when he had to rule alongside a socialist government. Together with the communists, they formed the majority, were able to claim the post of prime minister and largely neutralized the conservative president.

There are now four politically distant forces represented in parliament, which makes constructive cooperation unlikely, or at least difficult. The Bourne government will continue as it does not need to be approved by the National Assembly.

Macron, lately trying to play a prominent role in trying to convince Putin to stop the war against Ukraine as one of the key statesmen in the EU now risks being distracted by domestic problems.

Instead of relying on (and therefore essentially disregarding) a compliant legislature, the president now has to deal with a National Assembly that cannot guarantee the implementation of his reforms.

Without a permanent partner, Macron’s supporters will have to seek a situational majority in each case to advance bills. Each vote on a bill or budget will balance on the brink of failure, which is unlikely to create a sustainable situation in the long term.

“The next five years are terra incognita for Emmanuel Macron. Whether you like it or not, he will have to discuss and negotiate. In this field, the president has not yet shined, to put it mildly – ​​this applies to both dialogue with deputies and interaction with trade unions and associations. For these miscalculations, he was punished during the current parliamentary elections, “writes the French newspaper Liberation.

Such a situation in the history of France happened in 1988, when the socialist President François Mitterrand failed to achieve an absolute majority and for the next five years was forced to seek compromises with other parties – sometimes with the centre-right, sometimes with the formerly powerful Communist Party.

Even within his own coalition, Macron’s position will become more precarious. Since, under the French constitution, he cannot be elected for a third term, the question of a successor remains open. At some point, allies of the President, such as former Prime Minister Edouard Philippe, can be expected to start campaigning for the presidency.

France will become very difficult to govern,” says analyst and sociologist Jérôme Fourquet. However, historically, the second presidential term in the Fifth Republic has never been successful.

The rise of the Euroskeptics will certainly call into question the role of France as the leader of the European Union, Spanish newspaper El Mundo notes:

“These parliamentary elections can be compared to a real earthquake in French politics. They secured a record number of seats for Marine Le Pen’s far-right party, as a result of which it will now form the third largest faction in parliament! … It is expected that now, when the EU is shaken by such challenges like Russia’s aggression, Paris will take the lead. However, the results of yesterday’s elections are hardly conducive to this.”

Instability in France will affect the entire European Union, the Turkish edition of Aargauer Zeitung also says:

“Political instability in Paris, which may well result in a political blockade, is capable of spreading to the entire European Union. France, which became the nation that sets the tone in Europe after Merkel’s departure, is too busy with itself to also communicate pan-European political impulses to the continent.”

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