Those who work in the defense alliance are prepared that the war in Ukraine can spread and that some NATO countries or the whole of NATO, at worst, directly clash with Russia.
– We live in a very dangerous time, says an American NATO source on TV 2.
– Now it would be completely irresponsible not to be ready for Vladimir Putin’s next move, says another defense alliance source.
The pressure against Putin is increasing
In both military and political leadership there is a certain fear of what the Russian president will do in the future. Putin was cornered. Whether that makes it more dangerous or not, you don’t really know. In NATO, intelligence analysts are working hard to try to predict the further development of the war in Europe.
President Vladimir Putin during the celebration that parts of Ukraine are now, according to the Kremlin, Russian territory. Photo: SPUTNIK
Vladimir Putin’s call for reserve forces has likely weakened his status among some Russians. The appetite for war seems to be diminishing. Fighting-age men fled the country and there were many protests.
What the representatives of the various NATO countries are discussing among themselves is whether the growing pressure makes Putin more dangerous. Or if it simply increases the chances of regime change in the Kremlin. The question is where is the pain threshold for President Putin’s most prominent supporters.
Russia is losing ground
On the battlefield, the Russians are pushed back hard. Many Western military strategists were surprised by the lack of strike power that the Russian military forces demonstrated during the war.
During his victory speech in Moscow last Friday, Vladimir Putin again threatened that all means will be considered used if the part of Ukraine that Putin now claims is part of Russia is attacked. Therein lies the possibility of considering the use of tactical nuclear weapons.
According to US President Joe Biden, using one of these against targets in Ukraine will trigger a violent reaction from the West. Biden’s national security adviser Jake Sullivan emphasizes the US warning that the use of nuclear weapons will have “catastrophic consequences”.
Former CIA chief David Petraeus with a clear warning to Putin. Photo: Luca Bruno
Americans are clear
On Sunday, former CIA chief and general David Petraeus said so in an interview with US television channel ABC Russian conventional force in Ukraine will be crushed if nuclear weapons are used.
– It will be so terrible that there must be an answer, said Petraeus.
This is felt by Putin and the circle around him. The support the Kremlin believes it has received from China could come under extreme pressure if nuclear weapons are used. They know this even in Moscow.
Vladimir Putin has shown that he knows where there are some red lines for NATO. Russian forces have refrained from attacking Ukraine’s supply lines that pass through neighboring Poland.
The amount of Western arms supplies to Ukrainian forces is enormous. Contributions from various member countries are coordinated at NATO headquarters.
Preparation is increasing in Europe
Around the same time that a gas pipeline from Norway to Poland and Denmark was opened last week, there were several losses on three pipelines between Russia and Europe. Apparently due to sabotage. Russia blames the United States, but here at NATO headquarters, the suspicion is mainly aimed at Russia.
A source points out that the pipe leaks have occurred in international waters and that it could be to test how NATO will react. Norway is now Europe’s most important gas supplier.
Parts of these pipes flow into international waters and it remains to be seen how NATO might react if these pipes are exposed to attack and it turns out that Russia is behind it.
Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg was pretty clear on Friday about how this would be perceived. On Twitter, he wrote that “deliberate attacks on Allied critical infrastructure will receive a united and clear response.”
General Secretary Jens Stoltenberg is concerned about development.
The Norwegian Armed Forces guard the Norwegian installations
Across NATO, preparedness was increased following Russia’s aggressive war against its neighbor and annexation of parts of Ukraine. The fear that the war will spread is palpable.
Norway has sent soldiers to Lithuania and Norway’s military forces are now helping by protecting oil and gas installations on land and at sea.
Putin’s attempts to weaken the coalition of countries pouring weapons, ammunition and money into the Ukrainian military have so far failed. He has chosen to trigger an energy crisis in Europe in response to sanctions and arms support for Ukraine.
So far, the coalition seems to be holding together, despite the war costing us something.
