An unexpected event in Russia involving President Vladimir Putin or his close entourage can give opportunity for Ukraine to recapture Crimea until the end of the year, said the country’s Deputy Defense Minister Vladimir Gavrilov, quoted by «Newsweek».
During a trip to Britain to discuss London’s support for the Ukrainian armed forces, Gavrilov was asked by Sky News whether it was “realistic” to recapture the peninsula by January, which Russia illegally annexed in 2014
He referred to the “black swan” theory, in which an unexpected event overturns previous calculations. “I think Russia may be facing a ‘black swan’ in its own country, within Russia, and this could contribute to our success with Crimea,” she said.
“We can set foot in Crimea, for example, by the end of December,” Gavrilov said, which is “possible” and “not excluded.”
When asked what this unforeseen event could be, Gavrilov replied: “Putin, for example, disappears for some reason“, which is “physical or political”.
“Or someone in his circle, something going on, or maybe a combination of a very disillusioned company in terms of losses,” he added.
After Ukraine liberated the southern city of Kherson, there has been speculation about it which areas could be the next target for the Kiev forces.
In October, the attack on the Kerch Strait bridge linking Russia to the Crimea peninsula led to a public relations turnaround for Kiev, which sees it as a symbol of Russian occupation.
Local media in Crimea reported that Russians were fleeing to Russia’s neighboring Krasnodar region amid fears Ukraine will act soon return the region, which Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has promised to do.
The British Defense Ministry reported on Friday that Russian units had built new trench systems near the border with Crimea, as well as near the Seversky Donets River between Donetsk and Luhansk regions.
Ben Hodges, the former US Army commanding general in Europe, tweeted on Nov. 12 that US-supplied High Mobility Artillery Missile Systems (HIMARS) “will soon be firing from Kherson” and that “the approaches to Crimea are handy”.
He said it could “degrade Russian defences” as the Ukrainian counter-offensive seeks to capture the cities of Mariupol and Melitopol “by January”. Therefore the decisive phase of the campaign begins… the liberation of the Crimea”.
Gavrilov told Sky News that Kiev would hold talks with Moscow only when Russian troops were ready to leave all of Ukraine, including Crimea, and ruled out a pause in hostilities as it would allow Russian forces to regroup.
“We have no right to stop, we have to move forward,” he said, stressing that Ukraine must prepare for a war that would take “some time” if Russia were to strengthen its forces. However, she added: “My feeling is this by the end of spring this war (will be) over“.
