Among the negative indicators accompanying the crisis in which Lebanon has been mired for more than three years, Fitch Solutions presented positive indicators. In its report “Lebanon’s Consumer Outlook 2023: High Inflation and a Fragile Political Climate Preventing a Full Recovery in Spending,” the agency sees that real household spending will increase 3% year-on-year during 2023. Spending total households will increase to 1.121 trillion pounds. Conversely, the growth rate was 1.2% last year, while the year 2021 saw a 12% contraction.
The agency found that migrating more Lebanese overseas to escape the deteriorating economic and social conditions in the country will support the introduction of money transfers to vulnerable families. This raises household spending expectations to rise at an average annual rate of 2.8 per cent over the medium term (2022-2026).
In parallel, the agency predicts that the Lebanese economy will grow by 3.7% in 2023, after a decline of 9.3% in 2021 and a contraction of 26.0% in 2020. consumption slowed to 60%, compared to 178.8% recorded last year. . However, persistently high consumer price inflation will affect household purchasing power and prevent a significant recovery in the consumer and retail sector.
Faced with the (relatively) “positive” view, there is a negative view regarding Lebanon’s relations with the Gulf Cooperation Council countries, as relations are unlikely, according to the agency, to improve in the short term. as Hezbollah claims its influence in the country, which renews the resentment of the GCC countries. Gulf cooperation. This will continue to have a negative impact on exports of goods and services until 2022.
