Home » Business » Poles lend money to the government. The amounts are impressive [WYKRES DNIA]

Poles lend money to the government. The amounts are impressive [WYKRES DNIA]

PLN 43 billion 324 million – this is the amount of sales of savings bonds (i.e. dedicated to individual buyers) in Poland in 2021. This amount is more than a half higher than in 2020 (about PLN 28.4 billion), two and a half times higher than in 2019 (about PLN 17.3 billion) and many times higher than in previous years.


Even in 2016 and earlier years, usually the annual sale of savings bonds amounted to approx. PLN 2-5 billion. Suffice it to say that in 2021, after August, sales reached a higher level than in the entire previous year. PLN 43.3 billion from the sale of bonds is more than in the years 2007-2017 combined (then approx. PLN 40.3 billion). The worst month in terms of sales in 2021 (February, slightly over PLN 3 billion) was better than the entire year, e.g. 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013 or 2014.

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Retail bonds are a savings hit. What’s the secret?

What happened that Poles began to lend savings to the government so en masse (because, in essence, stuff this is what the idea of ​​retail government bonds boils down to)?

This is primarily the result of our search for a safe way to invest. Moreover, for most of the year, the offer of government securities was much better than that of banks on deposits. A very important motivation in purchasing bonds was also the will to protect capital against inflation. In this triad of weak investments, inflation and the search for safety, not only bonds, but also real estate and gold have benefited in recent months.

– comments Bartosz Turek, chief analyst of HRE Investments, results for 2021.

But in principle, his explanations also apply to the previous few years. Ministry of Finance It actively took on the role of a “depositor” of Poles’ savings, somewhat replacing banks in this role. These, in turn, have no reason to compete for Poles’ funds with high interest rates. For years, the Polish banking sector has been characterized by excess liquidity. This means that banks have more deposits than they need to lend.

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Three-month bonds collect Poles’ savings, while four-year bonds are to protect against inflation

The decision from 2017, when three-month bonds were introduced to the offer, was responsible for a very large part of the jump in the sale of savings bonds. In 2021, they accounted for as much as 52 percent. total sales (i.e. approx. PLN 22.5 billion). Poles are famous for their love of short-term investment solutions, and the possible profit on three-month bonds was very competitive compared to bank offers. For example, when banks paid in deposits for the long months of 2021 usually no more than 0.10 percent. on an annual basis, three-month bonds gave 0.50 percent. Of course – this is still an unimpressive percentage, especially in comparison with inflation. But still much better than in banks.

Interestingly, despite four increases in domestic interest rates since October 2021 (in total, the NBP reference rate increased from 0.10 per cent to 2.25 per cent), the conditions of the savings bonds have still not improved. This means that bonds are becoming less and less profitable compared to bank deposits.

Since 2017, four-year bonds have also enjoyed much greater interest than in the previous years. Their secret – just like the ten-year and six- and twelve-year-olds for 500 plus beneficiaries (but four years are the shortest) – is to link interest rates with inflation from the second year of saving. For example, in the case of “four-year-olds” it is the level of inflation plus a margin of 0.75 percent. (in the first year, the interest rate is fixed and amounts to 1.30%)

Four-year (and other inflation-related) bonds are called “anti-inflationary” because, theoretically, their interest from the second year is even higher than the growth rate cen. Only in recent months it has been working on average, because inflation is rising too fast. For example, in October 2020 the annual inflation was 3.1%, which means that for “4-year-olds” whose second year (the so-called interest period) started in December 2020, the interest rate was 3.85%. (inflation 3.10% plus a margin of 0.75%). Meanwhile, prices rose by 8.6 percent during this time. (this was the annual inflation in December 2021).

The situation will get better when inflation goes down. If someone in a given year has an interest rate of a four-year-old, 9.35 percent. (December 2021 inflation 8.6 percent plus a margin of 0.75 percent), if inflation for the year will be e.g. 6 percent, the real profit will be significant. Although not as high as it seems at first glance, because the profits from treasury bonds are taxed with the 19% Belka tax, so “on hand” interest will not be 9.35 percent, but “only” about 7.57 percent .

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Family bonds a bit more popular, but still a margin

In theory, 2021 was also the best in history when it comes to selling six- and twelve-year family bonds, i.e. offered only to 500 plus program beneficiaries. But the amount of PLN 288 million invested in these securities is still symbolic, it is less than 1 percent. all sales.

Interestingly, the data on the sale of these securities clearly show a jump in 2019 and 2020 (PLN 87 million and PLN 207 million, respectively, compared to PLN 17 million and PLN 30 million in 2017 and 2018, respectively). It is probably related, inter alia, with an extension of 500 plus from mid-2019 to all children with no income threshold for the first. The program then covered many more relatively wealthy families who could afford to save 500 plus for the future of the child.

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